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EpilogueA Vision of the FutureLooking into a crystal ball is not the best way to gather a vision of the future for CIRES. While we plan and try to anticipate, there are often events that overcome even the best of our intentions. Science research is like a wander through a maze-there are so many roads to choose and when those paths are presented to you, you make a choice. These choices sometimes lead to the unexpected, and always to some other path choice. CIRES has worked through its plan for 2001-2005. It is ambitious, as it should be for a quality organization. In our 2001 cooperative agreement with NOAA we state our overall scientific objective as: to create a synergy between studies of the geosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. In order to achieve this objective we have set a number of goals for the Institute:
Work towards these goals is well underway and new ideas have emerged from the collective creativeness of the Institute, the University, and NOAA. Our new research themes, as of July 2002, support our mission of Science in Service to Society. Numerous activities are being planned to seed new collaborations and opportunities. The new theme structure is an important step as it offers us the ability to stretch our minds beyond our disciplines. Climate System Variability provides a focus for studying climate variability and change and the interactions of the climate system with ecosystems, social institutions, and humanity. Many of our research projects have a regional focus because they examine problems that have a particular geographic, demographic, weather or climate regime. These projects are the thrust of the Regional Processes theme and deal with impacts of climate, weather, air quality, intercontinental transport, and surface processes. Planetary Metabolism is a phrase that captures the research associated with the sustainability of the biosphere within different environments. Geodynamics examines the relationship of convective earth processes and how these processes impact the surface. All of our themes rely on the development of Advanced Modeling and Observing Systems- A CIRES Research Theme -from remote sensing to nonlinear simulation-for probing below the surface up to the sun. The heart of this theme is new technology development in support of scientific questions and modeling that help to provide understanding through the synthesis of components of the Earth system. Science in Service to Society embraces these themes and encourages thinking about natural hazards, in particular as they interact with human systems. Research efforts in water vulnerability in the interior West, arctic climate policies, space weather forecasting, and air quality forecasting are all examples of how our science is working with decision-makers, both operationally and in policy arenas. We have now, 35 years later, developed the societal component that was suggested by a reviewer of the initial proposal to form CIRES. With the creation of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research Center we are forging ahead with increased collaborations with social science, economics, policy, and law. And, philosophy and history are waiting in the wings-we have made some tentative overtures in asking how the humanities can help inform our scientific research. Our outreach will continue to expand and be recognized. The K-12 program is strong and public outreach is increasingly being done through research, community involvement, and professional activities. Our visibility will continue to increase and will reflect the excellence which we have achieved. CIRES may not grow as fast in the future as it has in the past. But we will grow and one of the greatest challenges will be the development of new space and integration of our programs into physical spaces that work together. While I do not see how we can both retain our central campus location and remain in one building, I do see the opportunities to consolidate certain activities. I see CIRES increasingly taking on the role as a facilitator of interdisciplinary research that tackles major questions of societal relevance and need. As we continue to invest in education programs that target underrepresented groups (SMART, SOARS, PHASE, Education and Research Visiting Fellowship, k-12 activities), I believe we will begin to see increased diversity in our scientific ranks. Of course, this vision depends on a healthy NOAA, NSF, and NASA research environment. To complement the federal funding stream, I believe that CIRES will need to engage in private and corporate fund raising. With that in mind, we are anticipating the formation of a development board for CIRES. The future will see some of us leave and some of us retire, providing opportunities for evolution of the Institute. The newcomers will provide leadership and guidance well into the future. They will come to an Institute that is fresh, provocative, innovative, stimulating, and fun. I believe the Institute will be in good hands for many decades to come.
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