Ensemble Forecasts of Air Quality in Asia: An operational multi-model approach, by Guy Brasseur, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, and NCAR
Every year, more than 3 million people die prematurely from breathing outdoor air pollutants, which, according to the World Health Organization, triggers heart failures, strokes, pulmonary diseases and lung cancers. Air pollution (back ground concentrations and acute episodes) has therefore become a global environmental problem that needs to be urgently addressed. The problem has become particularly dramatic in several regions of the world such as China where the economy has been growing very rapidly. In order to better predict, and hopefully avoid, the occurrence of high levels of particulate matter (PM), ozone, and other pollutants, a multi-model analysis and prediction system has been developed by combining nine European and Chinese chemical transport models. The system has been developed for eastern China as part of the European Panda and MarcoPolo Projects.
The presentation will describe the system, which is now operational, present some illustrative examples of air quality forecasts, and highlight challenges. It will discuss ways to downscale model forecasts to city block scales in urban areas and to reduce biases in the predictions. Perspectives for applying such systems in other parts of the world (e.g., Latin America) will be provided. A new international initiative, called Monitoring, Analysis and Prediction of Air Quality (MAP-AQ) will be briefly discussed.
Guy Brasseur is the group leader of the Environmental Modeling group at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany) and a Distinguished Scholar at the National Center of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.