CSTPR NOONTIME SEMINAR SERIES:
Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Arctic Sea Changes: Prospects for Increased Marine Traffic With Unpredictable Sea Ice Conditions
by Mark Serreze
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

October 7, 2010
12:00 PM 
- 1:00 PM
CSTPR Conference Room

Abstract: As Arctic sea ice extent and concentration continue to decline, the fabled Northwest Passage through the channels of the Canadian Arctic and the Northern Sea Route along the Siberian coast are becoming increasingly navigable. While the prospect of a seasonal shortcut from the Atlantic to the Pacific is attracting the attention of industry, adventurers, the tourist trade, and government, the strong natural climate variability inherent to the Arctic introduces a high level on uncertainty as to whether or not these passages may be open in a given year. Even scattered sea ice can present a hazard to shipping and ice conditions can change dramatically in the span of hours.. Increased marine access to the Arctic is in turn raising concerns ranging from sovereignty to accident response to homeland security.

Biography: Mark C. Serreze received a PhD in geography from the University of Colorado Boulder, in 1989, for his work in understanding Arctic sea ice variability. Subsequently he became a research scientist at the University of Colorado, at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) within the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. He was promoted to Director of NSIDC and Professor of Geography in August 2009. His Arctic research interests are wide-ranging, and include atmosphere-sea ice interactions, synoptic climatology, boundary layer problems, numerical weather prediction and climate change. He has conducted field work in the Canadian Arctic on sea ice and icecaps, and on the Alaskan tundra. Efforts over the past ten years have increasingly focused on trying to make sense of the rapid environmental changes being observed in the Arctic.

Sponsored by The Center for Science and Technology Policy Research