Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Tara Fortin

Ph.D., University of Colorado, 2002

SPONSOR: Roger Pielke, Jr.

TITLE: Evaluating Uncertainty in Atmospheric Models: Implications for Science and Science Policy

THEME: Climate System Variability

RESEARCH

Policy makers are increasingly turning to computer models to help them find solutions to complex policy problems such as climate change. However, as models become more and more complex, our ability to understand them may be compromised. In order to use models effectively in decision-making processes, it is necessary to understand their abilities and limitations. Therefore, we are developing a methodology aimed at helping decision makers evaluate the efficacy of models in policy. Some of the key questions we hope to answer are:

• Is it possible to fully characterize a model's space? If so, is there a protocol we can develop that can be followed?
• How does the 'model space' (closed representation) relate to the 'landscape space (open system)?
• How do things change as model become more complicated?
• When is a model useful/not useful?
• What questions should policy-makers be asking of models before they use their results to inform their policy decisions?
• Does greater model complexity necessarily equate to better decisions?
• How should the science research agenda be prioritized to be of the greatest use to decision makers?