Cryospheric and Polar Processes Seminar: Amanda Lynch
Linkages between Arctic summer circulation regimes and regional sea ice anomalies
by Dr. Amanda Lynch - CIRES Visiting Fellow; Director, Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Lindemann Distinguished Professor, Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Brown University
Studies of linkages between summer atmospheric circulation patterns and the downward trend in annual Arctic sea ice minimum have suggested systematic relationships between low sea ice years and the Arctic Dipole pattern. While the first order downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent has been strong, particularly in the last few decades, departures in ice extent from year to year are typically the result of large and often partially compensating regional anomalies. In particular, the trend in open water in the Pacific sector has been both larger and more variable than the trend in the Atlantic sector, due in part to the ubiquity of Fram Strait export maintaining some measure of ice cover.
Decadal predictive skill of sea ice by earth system models is increasing rapidly. However, the challenge of sea ice predictability is no more immediate than in the quest for time-sensitive decision support for technically feasible navigation routes with enough skill and detail to predict requirements for ship class. In this context, developing new approaches for seasonal ice prediction presents an important test for our understanding of the evolving system.
This talk will present initial results that combine statistical modeling of ice and shipping costs with analysis of atmospheric circulation regimes using self organizing maps as part of an ongoing project to better understand the drivers of change on critical shipping routes in the Arctic.