The Politics of Earthquake Prediction

Lucile M. Jones

Scientist-in-charge for Southern California
Earthquake Hazards Team
United States Geological Survey, Pasadena, California

Most seismologists have come to believe that predicting the time of one particular earthquake is a very difficult, if not impossible, task. At the same time, scientists are issuing more statements about earthquake risk on long and short time frames than ever before. The key to the difference is a move from trying to predict individual events to evaluating the consequences of probabilistic rates. Long-term assessments of the earthquake potentials of different faults, short-term changes in low probabilities, and probabilities of damaging aftershocks are all useful. This talk will explore this evolution in earthquake prediction. It will show why classical earthquake prediction is such a difficult problem, how a probabilistic approach has allowed us to produce useful information even when we do not know how to predict earthquakes, and how these statements have pulled scientific experts into the political arena.

About the Lecturer

Education

A. B., Chinese Language and Literature, 1976
Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island

Ph. D., Geophysics, 1981
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA
Thesis topic: The mechanics of faulting

Professional Activities

Dr. Jones is Scientist-in-charge of the USGS earthquake program in southern California, heading the Pasadena office of the USGS, and coordinating earthquake research funded by the USGS in southern California. She is also a commissioner of the Seismic Safety Commission of the State of California, advising the governor and legislature on seismic safety, and a member of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council. Dr. Jones has authored over 80 papers on research seismology with primary interest in the physics of earthquakes, foreshocks and earthquake hazard assessment, and the seismotectonics of southern California. She has been a seismologist with the US Geological Survey since 1983. As a graduate student, Dr. Jones was the first American scientist to work in China after normalization of relations in 1979, and spent twelve months at the State Seismological Bureau in Beijing from 1979 to 1983. She has received numerous awards, including the Meritorious Service Award from the Department of Interior (2002), the Alquist Award from the California Earthquake Safety Foundation (2001), Founder’s Day Award from the La Cañada PTA (2000), Woman of the Year from the Muses of the California Science Museum (1999), and Women Making History 1993 from Senator Barbara Boxer.

Professional Appointments

• Seismic Safety Commission of the State of California: Commissioner, Appointed by Gov. Davis, 2002-2005, elected chair June 2004.
• California Institute of Technology: Visiting Research Associate in the Seismological Laboratory, 1984-present
• American Geophysical Union: member since 1977, elected Secretary of the Seismology Section, 1998-2000
• National Research Council: Board on Natural Disasters 1992-1998, Panel on Regional Networks, 1988-1990
• Seismological Society of America: member since 1982, elected to Board of Directors 1990-1996, chair of Publications Committee 1991-1995

Personal Information

Dr. Jones was born February 13, 1955, in Santa Monica, California, a fourth-generation resident

Lucy Jones