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Upper Colorado Runoff Predictions in Support of NIDIS Klaus Wolter (1,2,3) (1) CIRES, (2) NOAA ESRL, (3) WWA Naturalized streamflow for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry has been processed since the Water Year of 1906. Its linkage to ENSO is complicated by highly diverse seasonal precipitation cycles in this region, as well as a switch from being typically dry (wet) with La Niña (El Niño) during fall and spring to being typically wet (dry) during winters of the same ENSO phases in the northern mountains of this basin. Both NOAA and NRCS river runoff forecasts are typically trained on actual snowpack conditions from January onward into the melt season, not ENSO or other teleconnection information. This leaves a hole of several months without any information on the upcoming streamflow season. Furthermore, Lake Powell and Lake Mead are managed jointly on a two-year schedule, leaving an additional need for forecasts into “Year 2”. This poster reports on my efforts to fill this gap in predictive capabilities with statistical models, including three years of actual forecasts (rather than hindcasts). |
