Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

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The Emergence of Surface-Based Arctic Amplification

Julienne C Stroeve, Mark C Serreze, Andy C Barrett, Dave N Kindig, and Marika M Holland

NSIDC, CIRES, NCAR

Rises in surface and lower troposphere air temperatures through the 21st century are projected to be especially pronounced over the Arctic Ocean during the cold season [Figure 1]. This Arctic amplification is largely driven by loss of the sea ice cover. As the climate warms, the sea ice cover retreats, allowing for more absorption of solar energy in the open water areas, increasing the sensible heat content of the upper ocean and leading to further ice loss. Ice formation in autumn and winter is subsequently delayed, as time is needed for the ocean mixed layer to lose enough heat for ice to form. This promotes enhanced upward heat fluxes, seen as strong warming at the surface and in the lower troposphere.