November 24, 2009
Climate change accelerating beyond expectations, urgent emissions reductions required, leading scientsis say
Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis prepared by some of the world’s top climate scientists.
In a special report called ‘The Copenhagen Diagnosis’, the 26 researchers, most of whom are authors of published IPCC reports, conclude that several important aspects of climate change are occurring at the high end or even beyond the expectations of only a few years ago.
The report also notes that global warming continues to track early IPCC projections based on greenhouse gas increases. Without significant mitigation, the report says global mean warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100.
The Copenhagen Diagnosis, which was a year in the making, documents the key findings in climate change science since the publication of the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
The new evidence to have emerged includes:
The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.
To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.
Statements by authors
“Sea level is rising much faster and Arctic sea ice cover shrinking more rapidly than we previously expected. Unfortunately, the data now show us that we have underesti¬mated the climate crisis in the past.”
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans and a Department Head at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
“Carbon dioxide emissions cannot be allowed to continue to rise if humanity intends to limit the risk of unacceptable climate change. The task is urgent and the turning point must come soon. If we are to avoid more than 2 degrees Celsius warming, which many countries have already accepted as a goal, then emissions need to peak before 2020 and then decline rapidly.”
Professor Richard Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA.
“The ice loss in Greenland accelerated during the last decade; also Antarctica is losing ice mass in the past few years and both ice sheets are adding over 1 mm sea-level rise to the global oceans today. This means that the upper range of sea-level rise by 2100 might be above 1 m or more on a global average, with large regional differences depending where the source of ice loss occurs.”
Professor Konrad Steffen, Director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environment Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
“Our available emissions to ensure a reasonably secure climate future are just about used up. Within just a decade global emissions need to be declining rapidly. An urgent binding treaty is needed to ensure unilateral action among the high emitters.”
Professor Matthew England, ARC Federation Fellow and joint Director of the Climate Change Research Centre of the University of NSW, Australia.
“This is a final scientific call for the climate negotiators from 192 countries who must embark on the climate protection train in Copenhagen. They need to know the stark truth about global warming and the unprecedented risks involved.”
Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU).
Contact:
Morgan Heim, 1-206-619-4482
Click here for the full report.
