AGU Fall Meeting
MONDAY, Dec. 14
A11S-01 • The Role of Aviation in Climate Change
David Fahey, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, CIRES Fellow
8:00 am-08:15 am • Moscone West 3001
Aviation emissions—including carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides—and contrail formation all contribute to climate change. More people are flying each year and further growth of the aviation industry is expected. Fahey looks at new research on the role of aviation in climate.
H11P-05 • How has Human-Induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?
Linyin Cheng, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s’s Earth System Research Laboratory
9:00 am-9:15 am • Moscone West 2022-24
The ongoing drought in California has put pressure on agriculture and water resources in the state. It also raises the question of what role anthropogenic climate change plays. Cheng demonstrates how, overall, the current severe impacts of drought on California’s agriculture have not been substantially caused by long-term climate
SH12A-03 • The Future of Operational Space Weather Observations
Thomas Berger, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
11:00 am-11:20 am • Moscone West 2011
Berger reviews the current state of space weather observations, the requirements for improved space weather forecasting abilities, and the relevant strategies of the new national strategy for space weather. Additionally, he addresses future missions that focus on space weather observations.
SH12A-06 • Presenting DSCOVR: The First NOAA Mission to Leave Earth Orbit
Douglas Biesecker, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (with CIRES co-authors)
11:50 am-12:05 pm • Moscone West 2011
Biesecker gives an overview of the NOAA Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite mission and the real-time space weather data being provided. He will show users how to access real-time DSCOVR data online.
TOWN HALL TH13I • Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space
12:30 pm-13:30 pm • Moscone West 2005
The National Research Council’s decadal survey, sponsored by NASA, NOAA, and the USGS and due in October 2017, will be a comprehensive analysis of all Earth sciences that could benefit from spaceborne observations. This AGU Town Hall, chaired by the National Research Council’s Arthur Charo, is part of an effort to canvas the community for new ideas about missions, programs, and capabilities to advance Earth system science. CIRES Director Waleed Abdalati is co-chair of the decadal survey.
TOWN HALL TH13E • Next Generation Science Standards and Earth Science Education
12:30 pm-13:30 pm • Moscone West 2007
The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) offer a rare opportunity to transform Earth and space science education, and maintaining momentum toward implementation of the NGSS depends upon building a broad and inclusive community. This town hall meeting is intended to bring together diverse stakeholders interested in working together toward NGSS implementation. Organizers include Susan Sullivan, CIRES Education and Outreach program director.
B14A-05 • Global Observation of N2O: Changes in Growth Rate and Spatial Patterns
Brad Hall, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (with CIRES co-authors)
5:00 pm-5:15 pm • Moscone West 2002
After carbon dioxide and methane, nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important greenhouse gas. It’s also involved in the destruction of stratospheric ozone. The presence of N2O in the atmosphere is due to microbial activity in soils and oceans, as well as industrial activity, specifically the use of fertilizer. While the amount of N2O has been increasing since pre-industrial times, the rate of increase has been increasing over the last decade. Hall presents NOAA N2O data and tries to shed light on recent changes in the growth rate.
MONDAY MORNING POSTERS • 8:00 am-12:20 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
A11M-0248 • Source Attribution of Methane Emissions in Northeastern Colorado Using Ammonia-to-Methane Emission Ratios
Scott Eilerman, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
Northeastern Colorado is home to oil and gas extraction and concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Both give off methane emissions but it’s hard to know who’s doing what. So researchers, using a mobile lab, evaluated emissions downwind of CAFOs. This, combined with aircraft measurements, can be used to better understand the source of emissions.
GC11G-1104 • Look Who’s Talking–The Role of the IARPC Collaborations Website in Supporting Multi-Institution Dialog on Arctic Research Imperatives
Sandra Starkweather, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
8:00 am-12:20 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
In October 2014, the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee introduced an open, social networking platform to support its mission to better understand how the Arctic is changing. Over 600 members have signed on, adding their own content. Researcher Sandra Starkweather looks at how effective this form of communication has been in sharing information and collaborating.
MONDAY AFTERNOON POSTER • 1:40 pm-6:00 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
PA13A-2192 • Using GEFS Ensemble Forecasts to Decision Making in Reservoir Management in California
Michael Scheuerer, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
Reservoirs provide flood control, water supply, recreation, and environmental stream-flow regulation. Many of these reservoirs are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers according to water control manuals which are based on typical historical weather patterns—wet during the winter, dry otherwise—rather than real time weather predictions. Scheuerer presents results from a pilot study on the utility of GEFS weather predictions for reservoir management in California which includes a case study for the Russian River Basin.
TUESDAY, Dec 15
PP22A-03 • 500-Year Reconstructions of Circulation in the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America: Relation to Precipitation and Fire Conditions in California and Precipitation in Hawai’i
Eugene Wahl, NOAA
10:50 am-11:05 am • Moscone West 2012
Eugene Wahl presents a reconstruction of the position of the North Pacific Jet Stream over the past 500 years, looking specifically at dry and wet extremes in California and fire extremes in the Sierra Nevada. Results indicate that both are closely related to the winter position of the North Pacific Jet Stream.
PRESS CONFERENCE • Accidental Geo-Engineering
11:30 am • Moscone West 3000
Various parts of the world have “dimmed” and “brightened” at times, as measured by surface solar radiation records, and some of that is clearly related to pollution patterns. But new data suggest something else is at work, too. That something is whitening global cloud-free skies and changing the way that solar radiation reaches Earth’s surface—and a provocative new analysis points to one likely cause. The research that will be presented in this press conference suggests people are already conducting an unintentional geoengineering experiment.
A23K-03 • The global mean energy balance under cloud-free conditions: an assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 models
Martin Wild, Professor, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich, Switzerland
2:10 pm - 2:24 pm • Moscone West 3004
A23K-04 • Evidence of Clear-Sky Day Whitening: Are We Already Conducting Geo-Engineering?
Charles Long, senior research scientist, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
2:25 pm - 2:40 pm • Moscone West 3004
U23A-01 • The Pain and the Gain of Rescuing Historic Science Data: The Nimbus Data Rescue Project
David Gallaher, CIRES (National Snow and Ice Data Center)
1:40 pm-2:00 pm • Moscone West 3002
The Nimbus satellites, launched by NASA in the mid-1960s, contain a treasure-trove of data that can extend the climate record and provide more information about long-term climate change. But that data was organized in a way that can’t be read or accessed by modern computer systems. With NASA funding, NSIDC has recovered that data. Given the information that’s been rescued, Gallaher says the pain is worth the effort.
A23N-06 • Contribution of Oil and Natural Gas Emissions on Summertime Air Quality over the Continental US from an Air Quality Modeling Perspective
Ravan Ahmadov, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
2:48 pm-3:01 pm • Moscone West 3014
The United States has seen rapid development of the oil and natural gas industry in recent decades and, with that, the emission of significant amounts of methane and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs). But their contribution to air quality, especially summertime ozone and particulate matter pollution, isn’t well characterized. In this study, Ahmadov compares top-down and bottom-up analyses of emissions estimates.
A24F-02 • A Quantification of Methane Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Extraction Regions in the Central/Western U.S. and a Comparison to Previous Studies
Jeff Peischl, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
4:12 pm-4:27 pm • Moscone West 3014
In March and April 2015, research aircraft flew over many regions of oil and natural gas extraction across the United States measuring methane, ethane, and other trace gases. Researchers used these data to quantify methane emissions from these regions and to study the impact of these emissions on climate and air quality.
A24F-03 • Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from Oil and Natural Gas Activities: Compositional Comparison of 13 Major Shale Basins via NOAA Airborne Measurements
Jessica Gilman, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
4:27 pm-4:40 pm • Moscone West 3014
The recent uptick in natural gas production is associated with a rise in the production of non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These emissions may affect local and regional air quality, an issue that the Shale Oil and Natural Gas Nexus (SONGNex) campaign is studying to get a better sense of the overall effect. Jessica Gilman presents measurements from multiple research flights over 11 shale basins in 8 states quality, an issue that the Shale Oil and Natural Gas Nexus (SONGNex) campaign is studying to get a better sense of the overall effect. Jessica Gilman presents measurements from multiple research flights over 11 shale basins in 8 states.
TUESDAY MORNING POSTERS • 8:00 am-12:20 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
IN21D-1710 • GOES-R Space Weather Data: Ensuring Access and Usability
Margaret Tilton, CIRES scientist in the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
The latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is expected to provide critical space weather data that can be used to prevent communication outages, reduce astronaut radiation exposure and limit the damage to satellites and power grids. But making this data available to potential users has been challenging, a problem that NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information is trying to solve.
A21A-0002 • Toward a Quantitative Assessment of the Influence of Regional Emission Sources on Ozone Production in the Colorado Front Range
Erin McDuffie, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
Despite nationwide decreases in urban emissions of NOx and VOCs, the Front Range of Colorado is one of the few US locations where ozone is currently increasing, to the point where it’s out of compliance with national air quality standards for ozone during summer months. Causes could include increases in western wildfire activity, population, or increased emissions from oil and natural gas (O&NG) activity. Erin McDuffie discusses methods for determining what’s contributing to the overall problem, including a combination of box modeling and field measurements to quantify the influence of O&NG sources.
WEDNESDAY, Dec 16
SM31E-03 • DSCOVR: Real-Time Solar Wind Data and Operational Products
Michele Cash, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center
08:30 am-08:45 am • Moscone West 2018
Cash looks at what NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite is doing and what the data collected from this satellite will be used for, including a product designed to identify and accurately predict the occurrence, duration, and strength of large geomagnetic storms.
G31C-05 • Advanced DInSAR Analysis at Campi Flegrei and Vesuvius, Italy
Kristy Tiampo, CIRES and University of Colorado Boulder Geological Sciences
9:00 am-9:15 am • Moscone West 2002
Differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) is a satellite remote sensing technique used extensively today for mapping ground deformation with high resolution. It’s particularly useful for volcanic monitoring, as in the Naples Bay region of Italy. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei are located in this area in close proximity to the densely populated city of Naples and, as a result, it is one of the most hazardous volcanic areas in the world. Tiampo presents observations she and her colleagues made of changes at Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei.
GC32A-03 • The Power of the Crowd: An Up Close and Personal Perspective on Planet Earth
Waleed Abdalati, CIRES director
10:50 am-11:05 • Moscone West 3003
Through engagement and commitment, citizen scientists are providing valuable data and personalized experience in the collection of those data. This presentation will include video clips that show a diverse set of citizen science projects in North America and worldwide, illustrating this scientifically useful combination of local and global. Such projects engage citizens and scientists alike in efforts to understand the world in which we live.
U34A-02 • What Do We Need to Know to Model the Microphysical Evolution of Volcanic Clouds and How Can We Make These Measurements?
Jason English, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
14:13 pm-14:26 pm • Moscone South 102
Large volcanic eruptions can inject millions of tons of ash and sulfate into the stratosphere, which in turn can affect Earth’s temperature, clouds, and ozone. This presentation highlights the importance of the particle properties, with the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption as an example, and what we would like to learn from future eruptions.
WEDNESDAY MORNING POSTER • 8 am-12:20 pm, Moscone South Poster Hall
A31B-0042 • Carbon Tetrachloride Emissions from the US during 2008-2012 Derived from Atmospheric Data Using Bayesian and Geostatistical Inversions
Lei Hu, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
Global atmospheric observations suggest continued emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), an ozone-depleting chemical, despite the international efforts to limit uses of CCl4. The chemical has historically been used as a starting reagent in chemical synthesis and as a solvent. Little progress has been made in understanding the causes of its ongoing emissions or identifying their contributing sources. Lei Hu and her colleagues quantified the U.S. contribution to the global ongoing emissions of CCl4 using data from the NOAA flask-air sampling network and state-of-the art modeling techniques. They suggest possible sources that contribute to the ongoing CCl4 emissions.
THURSDAY, Dec 17
A41Q-01 • Estimates of Methane and Ethane Emissions from the Barnett Shale Using Atmospheric Measurements
Anna Karion, NIST (formerly CIRES, and with CIRES co-authors)
08:00 am-08:15 am • Moscone West 3012
There’s been a substantial effort to understand the impact of oil and gas operations on nation-wide methane emissions. Karion presents results from a case study that estimates methane and ethane emissions from the Barnett Shale based on airborne measurements, aimed at getting a better grasp of who is emitting what and when.
TOWN HALL • TH43E • NASA Sea Level Change Team
12:30 pm-13:30 pm • Moscone West 2010
In 2014, the NASA Sea Level Change Team (N-SLCT) was formed to address challenges in sea level change research. Here, we present the ongoing work of the N-SLCT and an overview of our Web Portal that launched in November, http://sealevel.nasa.gov. CIRES Fellow Steven Nerem (CU Boulder Aerospace Engineering Sciences) leads NASA’s Sea Level Change Team.
GC44A-02 • Linking Extreme Weather Events and Extreme ENSO States
Judith Perlwitz, CIRES
4:15 pm-4:30 pm • Moscone West 2018
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a main driver of cold season precipitation anomalies over the United States. To what extent is the intensity of heavy precipitation events influenced by El Niño and La Niña? Perlwitz and colleagues address whether the U.S. pattern of ENSO effects on heavy precipitation is the same as the U.S. pattern of seasonal mean precipitation.
THURSDAY MORNING POSTERS • 8 am-12:20 pm, Moscone South Poster Hall
B41D-0462 • Development and Deployment of Unmanned Aircraft Instrumentation for Measuring Quantities Related to Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions
Gijs de Boer, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Reserach Laboratory
More and more scientists are using unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) as part of their research in Earth sciences. De Boer gives an overview of recent efforts led by the University of Colorado Boulder to develop and deploy UAS, emphasizing work related to understanding interactions between Earth’s surface and the overlying atmosphere.
C41B-0703 • Near Record Early Snowmelt and Signs of Environmental Change in Barrow, Alaska
Diane Stanitski, NOAA (with CIRES co-authors)
Spring arrived very early in Barrow, Alaska in 2015. It was the second earliest snow melt on record, following a trend of earlier spring thaws. An earlier spring leads to big changes in the environment, including an increase in the net surface radiation budget, deeper thaw of permafrost, and the potential release of stored methane and carbon dioxide. Stanitski presents key factors behind this early spring trend.
A41A-048 • NOAA’S Van-Based Mobile Atmospheric Emissions Measurement Laboratory
William Dubé, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
Dubé describes the modifications made to the vehicle that became one of NOAA’s mobile atmospheric emissions measurement laboratories, including the instrument power system; battery back-up system; data acquisition system; real-time display; meteorological, directional, and position sensor package; and the typical atmospheric emissions instrument package. The van conversion uses off-the-shelf components from the marine and RV industries, keeping the costs lower.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON POSTER • 1:40 pm-6:00 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
A43A-0252 • A Study of Aerosol Optical Properties Using a Lightweight Optical Particle Spectrometer and Sun Photometer from an Unmanned Aerial System
Hagen Telg, NOAA and CIRES and colleagues from CIRES and NOAA
A miniaturized printed optical particle spectrometer (POPS) and sun photometer (miniSASP)—with structural components made by a 3-D printer—have been developed recently for unmanned aerial systems and balloon applications. Telg presents the first scientific data recorded by these two instruments in Svalbard, Norway and explains how they can be used by scientists to study optical, microphysical, and chemical properties of atmospheric aerosols.
FRIDAY, Dec 18
GC51H-01 • Improvements in NOAA SURFRAD and ISIS Sites for Near Real-Time Solar Irradiance for Verification of Solar Forecasts for the DOE NOAA Solar Forecast Improvement Plan (SFIP)
Kathleen Lantz, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
08:00 am-08:15 am • Moscone West 2022-24
The goal of the DOE-NOAA Solar Forecasting Improvement Project is improving solar forecasting in order to make better use of solar as a source of renewable energy. Lantz gives an overview of recent improvements that are helping scientists achieve that goal.
NH52B-04 • Assessing Causes of Hydrologic Climate Extremes in the Upper Missouri Basin
Ben Livneh, CIRES
11:08 am-11:20 am • Moscone South 103
Between 1993 and 2012, the Upper Missouri River Basin saw a sharp increase in year-to-year streamflow variability with notable flood and drought events. But comparable changes in precipitation and temperature haven’t been seen. So what’s going on? Livneh uses computer models of the land surface to explore how changes in weather statistics, in seasonality, and changes in land cover have contributed to increasing streamflow variability.
A53D-05 • Increases in Atmospheric Chlorine from Dichloromethane, a Gas Not Controlled by the Montreal Protocol
Stephen Motzka, NOAA (Earth System Research Laboratory) and CIRES Fellow
2:40 pm-2:55 pm • Moscone West 3010
Short-lived gases like dichloromethane weren’t historically controlled by the Montreal Protocol in order to limit ozone depletion but, in recent years, the amount of them in the troposphere has been increasing for causes not well understood. Montzka takes a closer look at the increase and what the observations tells us about the root causes and atmospheric impacts.
FRIDAY MORNING POSTER • 8 am-12:20 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
A51H-0175 • The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Atlas
Amy Butler, Jeremiah Sjoberg, CIRES and Dian Seidel, NOAA
8:00 am-12:20 pm • Moscone South Poster Hall
Large and rapid temperature increases in the polar stratosphere are known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW). These events can substantially affect wintertime surface climate, such as cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia, or anomalous warming over Greenland. CIRES and NOAA scientists are creating an atlas of historical SSW events to help users better understand this phenomenon.