Climate Diagnostics Center in FY 2006

Accomplishments

The CDC has produced nearly 200 peer-review publications over the past five years on a broad range of climate-related topics. CDC members have also provided scientific input into numerous national and international programs including:

1. Assisting the Western Governors' Association (WGA) in the development of a plan for a National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
2. Contributions to National Research Council Studies such as "Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease." National Academy of Sciences Press.
3. Contributions to the development of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) Collaborative Research Networks (CRN) in, among other areas, providing climate diagnostics information and data in support of a health early warning system for the Americas.
4. Contributions to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Chapters for Working Groups I, II, & III.
5. Contributions to and serving on numerous WMO, national, AMS and AGU climate research panels and journal editorial board such as CLIVAR, THORPEX, NCAR steering committees, GLOBEC, AOPC GCOS, Journal of Climate, International Journal of Climatology, Journal Arctic and Alpine Research, HEPEX, as well NASA, NSF, USDS, and DOE advisory and review panels.
6. Contributions to the development of the interagency Climate Change Science Program strategic plan.
7. Contributing to the development of a national climate service implementation plan.
8. Lead authorship of a report to Congress on the May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak.
9. Ongoing updates and improvements to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), providing observations of surface ocean conditions currently back to 1784.
10. Sponsoring and hosting nearly 100 seminars between the beginning of 2002 and the end of 2005. Members of the CDC Staff have contributed to the university’s academic mission through activities such as:
    • Partnering in the establishment of the interdisciplinary NOAA Office of Global Programs Western Water Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment.
    • Teaching an undergraduate course titled "Our Changing Environment"
    • Hosting three CIRES Visiting Fellows.
    • Serving on seven University of Colorado graduate student thesis committees.
    • Hosting and supervising five undergraduate students working on climate research.

Recent Highlights

CDC scientists provide regular input to the production of the U.S. Drought Monitor. They produce experimental seasonal forecasts every month based on tropical ocean conditions, and have created a web page to display forecasts. On the state level, they regularly provide input to and make briefings at meetings of the Colorado Water Availability Task Force and to other stakeholders on the current and projected evolution of ENSO-related anomalies and their implications for the southwestern U.S. Some experimental CDC forecasts are now being used by regional wildfire managers.

CDC scientists recently discovered an emerging long-term trend toward an increasing year-to-year variance (decreasing reliability) of streamflow across the major river basins in western North America: Fraser, Columbia, Sacramento-San Joaquin, and Upper Colorado. They also demonstrated that a concurrent increase in the incidence of synchronous flows (simultaneous high or low flows across all four river basins) has resulted in expansive water resources stress. The observed trends are associated with trends in the wintertime atmospheric circulation and ocean temperatures, raising new questions on the detection, attribution, and projection of regional hydrologic climate change.

CDC continues to participate strongly in the OGP-funded regional assessment on the effects of climate variability on water resources in the Interior West ("Western Water Assessment," or WWA). CDC scientists held frequent interactions with other federal and state agencies such as the Department of the Interior, including the Bureau of Reclamation and the Fish and Wildlife Service, and other user groups, such as the Denver Water Board, Colorado River Water Conservation District, and Colorado Drought Task Force. An important objective of this research is to learn how to better incorporate climate information and forecasts into water resource decisions in this highly water-sensitive region.

CDC also continued its strong tradition of public outreach and service to the broader scientific community. CDC staff gave numerous media interviews and specialized climate briefings, and developed new web pages explaining basic and applied CDC climate research in laymen's terms. This web site also contains links to many experimental and applied climate products developed at the Center.