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Environmental Observations, Modeling and Forecasting Division
R. Michael Hardesty, Division Director

The overall direction of this research is toward increased understanding of interactive processes in the Earth's physical environment and the development of a more coherent picture of its sensitivities to natural and anthropogenic change. The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect is a continuing source of research problems, and one of the most pressing problems is how to determine the onset of a theoretically predicted warming. Both of these topics receive considerable attention from CIRES researchers.

Research groups and CIRES Fellows conducting research in this division include:

Why environmental observations, modeling and forecasting research?

Measuring carbon and greenhouse gases
Models and forecasts are only as good as the quality of the initial data input. That’s why CIRES scientists participate in global monitoring networks for carbon, greenhouse gases, ozone, and other atmospheric compounds. Through these networks we collect information at the site (in situ) and also remotely. Measurements aboard unmanned aircraft systems, for instance, have greatly enhanced our ability to monitor difficult-to-reach places like the Arctic Ocean.

Remote sensing
Remote sensing allows us to study earth system processes over large areas and in hard-to-access places. When it comes to measuring properties of the atmosphere, for example, remote sensing enables us to capture information about an entire column of air nearly instantaneously. This is invaluable for tracking trace gases and pollutants, as well as for modeling temperature changes in the atmospheric column. Using this technology, CIRES researchers investigate the thermal structure of the middle and upper atmosphere and cloud formation at different heights. In other disciplines, we use remote sensing to monitor ice melt, seismic activity, and land use changes.

Geophysical data stewardship
CIRES scientists work with their NOAA counterparts to maintain the world’s largest collection of seafloor data, space environment data, and historical tsunami data. We also manage and store geophysical observations taken from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. CIRES scientists are especially knowledgeable in building and maintaining long-term archives for data acquired by NOAA observing systems. Our robust data sets are used by scientists worldwide, and they will provide invaluable historical information for future generations of earth scientists.

Global climate modeling
Models are exceptionally powerful tools for investigating complicated earth system processes, such as the sensitivity of the global climate to natural and human-made disturbances. One aspect of our modeling work focuses on understanding the sensitivity of large-scale Arctic weather patterns to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. We also look to understand what the likelihood is that these different synoptic weather patterns will actually occur. In other research, our scientists use models to improve the representation of clouds and land-surface processes and to investigate the response of regional hydrology to global climate change.

Research Snapshot
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