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Spring 2009

ATOC 7500-001: Tropical Cyclones

3 Credits, Location: ATOC conference room (STAD 255-21) ; 10:00 - 12:30 Fridays

Tropical cyclones are a particularly virulent form of weather that can cause devastation and large loss of life. Recently Gustav and Ike caused extensive property damage along and inland from the Gulf coast of the United States. Strong tropical cyclones have different names than hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean region and typhoons in the western north Pacific Ocean, but they are the same weather feature.

This course on Tropical Cyclones will present the physics of their formation, intensification, movement, and dissipation. Their effects on society will be explained. The subject matter will follow the Table of Contents in

Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp. Out of print, will be supplied to registered students. PDF

Hurricanes

and the material in

Emanuel, Kerry, 2005: Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. Oxford University Press. ISBN-13:978-019-514941-8 and ISBN-10:0-19-514941-6

Cover

Additional Reading: Pielke, R.A., 1990: The hurricane. Routledge Press, London, England, 228 pp.

Preview this book

 


Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:11:52 -0700 (MST)
From: Kevin Joseph Sharp
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
sp09
Subject: Undergrad Tropical Cyclones Thesis

Hey everyone,

In case anyone is interested, here is a copy of the undergraduate honors thesis I wrote at the University of Tennessee entitled "Tropical Cyclones and Americas Coastal Population."

Kevin Sharp
Master's Student
Department of Geography
University of Colorado at Boulder


Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:07:47 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday Jan 16 class

I enjoyed meeting several of you today. For the assignment for next week, please read

1. Chapters 1 and 3 in Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp.

The pdf for the book is at this link

2. Chapters 1 and 2 in Emanuel, Kerry, 2005: Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. Oxford University Press. ISBN-13:978-019-514941-8 and ISBN-10:0-19-514941-6

3. For those we want more information on meteorological concepts please read Chapters 2, 3 and 4 [we will spend, as needed, time in class to discuss these concepts]in Pielke Sr., R.A. 2002: Synoptic Weather Lab Notes. Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science Class Report #1, Final Version, August 20, 2002.

4. Select a paper listed under "Current Related Literature" below , or one of your choice, and present an overview of it for class next Friday. Dallas can help you obtain the pdf of any paper, if the urls are not already available.

5. Join the tropical-storms mailing group. See how to join at http://www.tstorms.org/tropical-storms/. Our class fits under the type "Tropical-Storms is a mailing list only for individuals who are active in either the research..."

Finally, please send us any specific topics you would like discussed.

Also, let me know if I missed anything! See you next Friday.

Roger


Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 17:11:52 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class this Friday January 23

Hi All, Our class will start at 1015am this Friday, instead of our usual time, as I am giving a talk at NCAR. Normally, we will start at 10am. I look forward to meeting those who were not in class last Friday.

Roger

Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2009 13:21:54 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr


To: sp09
Subject: Friday November 23

Hi All, Thank you for the two excellent overviews of the papers! Your presentations were very effective and informative. Please send Dallas the urls for the papers and the one powerpoint to Dallas and she will place on our class website. We will routinely plan to post powerpoint presentations (with your name as author) unless you tell us otherwise.

For next Friday, we will start at 10am and end about 1215pm or so, with a short break. For our activities, please

1. E-mail all of us the paper(s) you plan to discuss.

2. Read chapters 3-10 in Emanuel's book

3. Look at the Appendices of his book, and load and test the model he has in Appendix III. We will also play with this in class.

4. Read Chapter 2 and 4 in my book.

5. Read (or review if already familiar), Chapters 3 and 4 in http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-77.pdf

Plan to also discuss a topic you would like to make for a class paper to present at the end of the semester.

6. We are going to work to sign you up for the tropical storms group. Please let Dallas know who has already signed up, so we do not repeat.

See you next Friday. If you have any questions about the material you are reading, please e-mail all of and/or also ask in class.

Roger


Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:10:03 -0700 (MST)
From: Whitney Doss
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
sp09
Subject: Re: query

All, Attached are the two papers I will be discussing for tomorrow's class.

Frappier et al: Stalagmite stable isotope record of recent tropical cyclone events. Geology; February 2007; v. 35; no. 2; p. 111-114; DOI: 10.1130/G23145A.1

Nyberg et al. 2007: Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature, Vol 447|7 June 2007| doi:10.1038/nature05895

See you then!

Whitney

> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <
Whitney C Doss
Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research
Department of Geology
University of Colorado at Boulder


Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:23:19 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Whitney Doss
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: query

Thanks Whitney!

All- please send your paper(s) also, if you can. Dallas will also post the url for them on our class website.

Roger


Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:37:49 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie Evan
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Whitney Doss
Cc: sp09

Subject: Re: query

Hi all, Here's the paper I'm going to present tomorrow.

Hill, C. M., and Y.-L. Lin (2003), Initiation of a mesoscale convective complex over the Ethiopian Highlands preceding the genesis of Hurricane Alberto (2000), Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 1232, doi:10.1029/2002GL016655.

It's about a mesoscale convective complex observed over the Ethiopian Highlands and how it evolved into hurricane Alberto. You can also have a look at a website I've done as a class project which explains what mesocale convective complexes are: http://www.cora.nwra.com/~steph/mcsweb/
Stephanie


Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:37:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Kevin Joseph Sharp
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Whitney Doss
Cc: sp09
Subject: Paper to be discussed on Friday

Hello all, I will be discussing the following paper tomorrow in class:

Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden, 2008: Whither Hurricane Activity? Science Science 322 (5902), 687. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396] http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2008/gav0803.pdf

Kevin

Kevin Sharp
Master's Student
Department of Geography
University of Colorado at Boulder


Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:01:45 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Stephanie Evan
Cc: Whitney Doss
sp09
Subject: Re: query

Hi Stephanie, Excellent! Dallas will also place the pdf of this paper on our class site. Roger


Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:04:07 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Kevin Joseph Sharp
Cc: Whitney Doss
sp09
Subject: Re: Paper to be discussed on Friday

Hi Kevin, Thanks! This is another excellent choice. Dallas will post on our class website too.

Roger


Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:27:45 -0700
From: Herbert Eugene Longenecker
To: sp09
Subject: RE: Paper to be discussed on Friday

Here's the paper I'll review:

Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model -

L. Fita, R. Romero, A. Luque, K. Emanuel, and C. Ramis January 2007 in NHESS ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Fita_etal_2007.pdf


Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:30:05 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr

To: sp09
Subject: RE: Paper to be discussed on Friday

Hi Gene, This will be very interesting! Topical cyclones (maybe!) in the Mediterranean have been suggested by quite a few in recent years.

Roger


Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:49:31 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -
Subject: class for Friday Feb 6

Hi All, The presentations and discussion on the papers this morning were excellent and very informative. The critical assessment of each paper is exactly the perspective we should emphasize, along with the physics that they tell us.

For next Friday,

1. Please read the following:

i) Chapters 11-12 in Emanuel

ii) Look at read where interested

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season

iii) Chapter 5 in Appendix D in P&P

iv) Plan to also discuss a topic you would like to make for a class paper to present at the end of the semester

v) Send us the url (or pdf) of the paper(s) you plan to discuss in class.

vi) regarding polar lows and tropical cyclones, please read the information on these websites

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/polar_low.html

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Polar-low---the-arctic-hurricane.htm

As a source on this systems (but not a reading request) see

http://books.google.com/books?id=oNim-SndZLUC&dq=polar+lows&printsec=frontcover&source=bn&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=4&ct=result

vii) for additional information regarding mesoscale convective systems, see

http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/faculty/Jun05_2000/docs/junker/facultymcc2000.htm

http://www.ems.psu.edu/~young/hp/res_mcs.htm

In class, we will go over this material, and focus where there is the most interest, as well as continue in Chapter 4 of the weather lab notes. Whitney, please also let us know what you find out about the Nature paper.

Have a good week!

Roger


Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2009 09:27:43 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Cc: sp09
Subject: My paper for this week/success with the model

My paper for this week is here:

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Abbot_Emanuel_2007.pdf

It is Abbot and Emanuel's "A Tropical and Subtropical Land-Sea-Atmosphere Drought Oscillation Mechanism."

Also, I've had some success running the model and visualizing it with MatLab. It requires a FORTRAN compiler, which comes with Ubuntu but which I don't know much about for macs and PCs. I'm sure one can be downloaded. I can help anyone who is running Ubuntu either as an OS or in VMWare.

-Stephanie


Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2009 10:15:29 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: What is a sub-tropical cyclone?

Hi All, For Friday, Stephanie Higgins will be discussing a paper on subtropical cyclones. To provide a persepctive on these weather systems, please see What is a sub-tropical cyclone? [http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A6.html.

I also recommend other Q&As and definitions at

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqA.html

Roger


Date: Fri, 6 Feb 2009 16:07:16 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Class Friday Feb 13 2008

Hi All, Thank you Stephanie for an excellent overview of the Abbot and Emanuel paper and instructions on how to use the idealized hurricane model! Others, please try other parameters in the model if you are interested. It would be good
tutorial to guess what the effect would be and why, and then see if the model results fit your understanding.

For our class Friday Feb 13, below are the papers which I would like us to focus on. Please overview each paper, and read those in which you have a particular interest. The urls are on our class website.

A. Tropical cyclone genesis

Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A, 59, 428-443.

Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel and A.H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834

McTaggart-Cowan, R., G.D. Deane, L.F. Bosart, C.A. Davis, and T.J. Galarneau, 2008: Climatology of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic (1948-2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1284-1304.

Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative.convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.

B. Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting

Camargo, S.J., and A.G. Barnston, 2008: Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Chen, T.C., S.Y. Wang, M.C. Yen, and A.J. Clark, 2008: Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Chylek, P., and G. Lesins, 2008: Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851.2007. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010036.

LaRow, T.E., Y.K. Lim, D.W. Shin, E. Chassignet and S. Cocke, 2008: Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations. J. Climate, 21, 3191-3206.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity, Nature, 450, 1066-1071.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

Future topics we will overview include the paleo-hurricane record, hurricane track and intensity modeling, climate change and hurricanes, and hurricane threats to society and the environment. If you have particular papers you want
us to discuss, please send to us.

Also, read Chapters 13 and 14 in Emanuel's book.

Kevin- would you be willing to overview your honors thesis "Tropical Cyclones and Americas Coastal Population?

Finally, as we discussed in class, the class we normally hold on March 20th will be moved to Thursday March 12 at 8am (in the same conference room). The class we would normally have May 1 will be held April 23 at 8am. The April 23 and 24th classes will be to give you class presentations, as well as overview the major conclusions we have found in our reviews of the recent research papers.

Have a good week!

Roger


Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:17:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie Evan
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Herbert Eugene Longenecker
Cc: sp09 -
Subject: paper for tomorrow

Hi all, Here's the paper I'll review tomorrow:
Chen TC, Wang SY, Yen MC, Clark AJ (2008) Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Stephanie


Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:21:48 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: seminar

Hi All, Please attend Dr. Dairaku's seminar if you can. It is tomorrow at 4pm. It is quite relevant to our class.

http://paos.colorado.edu/events/events.php

Friday, February 13: Koji Dairaku, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan. Introduction of multi-model ensembles and downscaling for regional risk assessment. Introduction of multi-model
ensemble and downscaling for regional risk assessment of climate change in Japan.

Roger


Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 15:47:59 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: some more papers on genesis

Hi All, Here are more sources of information on genesis:

http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_138707.htm

http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108440.htm

Roger


Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:51:26 -0700 (MST)

From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class for Friday Feb 20 2009

Hi All, Thank you for two excellent presentations today by Kevin and Stephanie E.! They both provided in insight and were effectively presented.

For our next class, we will overview seasonal prediction using the the papers and other information that was listed in last week's e-mail.

Also, we will start on tropical cyclone classification and on intensity and track forecasting. For these subjects please look at the following papers:

Tropical cyclone classification by satellite(the Dvorak technique)

Velden, C.S., T.L. Olander, and R.M. Zehr, 1998: Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 172–186.

Guide to Dvorak Classification of Satellite Images

Tropical cyclone intensity -

DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1994: A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 209–220.

DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 326-337.

DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2005: Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20:4, 531-543.

Hurricane Intensity Forecast Improvements and Impacts Projections (HiFi):
http://www.nova.edu/ocean/hifi/

Bender, M.A., I. Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3965–3989.

Rhome, J.R. 2007: Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models. National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, 14 pp. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Also, Gene, will you be able to present your FEMA work next week? Others-please also let me know if you would like to overview a paper(s).

I hope to see you at Koji's seminar later today!

Roger


Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2009 07:51:12 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Forwarded mail....

Hi All, Dallas did some excellent detective work and found several papers that we will also discuss. The latest concept in Montgomery's research is summarized in the news article.

Roger

--
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 16 Feb 2009 09:57:06 -0700 (MST)
From: Dallas Staley
To: Roger Pielke Sr.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2008-08-17-hurricane-pouch_N.htm

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/papers/USAToday.pdf

see related paper:

Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2008: Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, 8, 11149–11292,
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/11149/2008/

RE: Mike Montgomery's research. I posted some of his papers on the class website today.


Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2009 19:13:58 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: tropical cyclone track archives (fwd)

Hi All, This article and source of information just appeared in EOS. It is an excellent resource on track information.

Knapp, K.R., M.C. Kruk, D.H . Levinson, and E.J. Gibney, 2009: Archive Compiles New Resource for Global Tropical Cyclone Research. Eos, 90:6, 46-47.

Roger


Date: Fri, 20 Feb 2009 13:41:31 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class

Hi All, As reminders, we are meeting 8am Thursday March 12th in place of our class on March 20th. Also, we will meet April 23rd (Thursday) at 8am instead of May 1st. The classes April 23 and 24 will be for your class presentations of your project, and I will also overview the main points of the class.

For next Friday, please

1. Read Chapters 15-19 in Emanuel's book.

2. We will look at the papers on seasonal prediction.

3. Please also present a paper on a subject of your choice (and send to each of us).

4. We will look at examples of the radar depiction of hurricanes.

5. Read Chapter 2 in Pielke and Pielke if you have not already.

Have a good weekend!

Roger


Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 20:45:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: sp09

HI All - here is my paper for tomorrow:

Title: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

Can you confirm that no one presented this last week?

Cheers, Stephanie


Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 07:22:36 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Stephanie A Higgins
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: my paper for tomorrow

Hi Stephanie, No one presented this paper; we did briefly go over his modeling but you will be able to add a significant new perspective. This is an excellent choice!

Roger


Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:39:32 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Class Feb 29th

Hi All, Thank you for the very good discussion today, and for Gene's excellent and informative presentation. For our next class

1. We will have a presentation by Katia Friedrich

2. Stephanie Higgins will give a presentation on

Title: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

3. Read Chapters 20-21 in Emanuel

4. We will look at several papers on the use of radars to monitor tropical cyclones

Reasor, P.D., M.T. Montgomery, F.D. Marks, and J.F. Gamache, 2000: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution of the Hurricane Inner Core Observed by Airborne Dual-Doppler Radar. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1653–1680.

Marks Jr., F.D., and R. Houze, 1987: Inner core structure of Hurricane Alicia from airborne Doppler radar observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1296-1317.

Franklin, J.L., S.J. Lord, S.E. Feuer, and F.D. Marks, 1993: The Kinematic Structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) Determined from Nested Analyses of Dropwindsonde and Doppler Radar Data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2433–2451.

Sources of radar information

http: //www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http: //radar.weather.gov/

Radar images of hurricanes. http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=radar+images+of+hurricanes&gbv=2

5. We will check into current tropical cyclone activity; see

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/ (and search further on their forecasts).

http: //tropicalcyclones.blogspot.com/
http: //www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/
http: //www.wunderground.com/tropical/

6. Also, please send us paper(s) that you would like to discuss.

7. For future classes, please look at the paper at http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&lr=&q=paleo+studies+of+hurricanes&btnG=Search
and let us know which you would like us to discuss on paleo-records of tropical cyclones.

Enjoy your weekend!

Roger


Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:52:14 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley

Subject: class projects

Hi All, Please also be prepared to discuss what your class project will be. The oral presentations will be on April 23 and 24th. Your powerpoint slides will serve as the written report.

Roger


Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2009 22:02:47 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: new paper

Hi All, This is quite interesting.

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/the-collapse-of-global-tropical-cyclone-activity-5027

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL035946.shtml

Roger


Date: Fri, 6 Mar 2009 14:23:21 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Classes

Hi All, Stephanie - thank you for your excellent summary of the Demaria paper today! The reporting on the lack of statistical significance in most of the trends is quite an important issue, and is often overlooked when linear regression lines are placed on figures.

For next Thursday and Friday, we will have a presentation by my son on his tropical cyclone damage research during one of these two days. I will send out an e-mail as soon as confirmed. I will also overview the major concepts that we have covered so far (the major take away concepts of the class).

1. We will also start on the climate-hurricane connection. Please look over the following papers (and we will add to later). Let us know if you would like to present one or more of these papers. I will also overview issues with respect to skillfully predicting future climate [you can see a summary of my perspective at

Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.

and

Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11,
54-55.].

Also, please read the Executive Summary of

National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 208 pp.

Climate Change - Tropical Cyclone Connection

Emanuel, K., 2008: The Hurricane-Climate Connection. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, ES10-ES20.

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc,, 89, 347-367.

Frappier, A., T. Knutson, K.-B. Liu, and K. Emanuel, 2007: Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling. Tellus A, 59, 529-537.

Hasling, J., 2009: WRC HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE. GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES: PAST . PRESENT . FUTURE. MMS ITM, January 6, 2009.

Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, I.M. Held and R.E. Tuleya, 2007: Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-Grid regional model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1549–1565. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1549.

Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi, and I.M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience 1, 359 - 364. FAQ and commentary

Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454.

Landsea, C. W., 2007: Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(18), 197, doi:10.1029/2007EO180001.

Mann, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland, and P. J. Webster, 2007: Atlantic tropical cyclones revisited. EOS, 88, 349-350. Copyright 2007, American Geophysical Union.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.

Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden, 2008: Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 322 (5902), 687. [DOI:10.1126/science.1164396]

Wang, C., and S.-K. Lee, 2008: Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032

2. We will discuss non-tropical cyclone strong wind events such aschinooks, boras, derechos, and tornadoes, and what they have in common and how they differ from tropical cyclone wind events.

3. We will discuss more on microphysics (the cold and warm cloud process, and how this relates to tropical storms).

4. We will also look at paleo-history studies including

McCloskey, T.A., and J.T. Knowles, 2008: Migration of the tropical cyclone zone throughout the Holocene. In: Hurricanes and Climate Change, J.B. Elsner and T.H. Jagger, Eds., 61-72, Springer.

[please send us others if you find them in the literature).

5. We will also look at the Q&A on tropical cyclones http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

Enjoy your weekend! See you next Thursday (March 12) at 8am.

Roger


Date: Sat, 7 Mar 2009 17:50:17 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Hurricane Mamish

Hi All, FYI - Severe Tropical Cyclone [hurricane] Hamish

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Winds are about 175 mph.

Roger


Date: Sun, 8 Mar 2009 10:46:38 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: another website

Hi All

Here is a very useful website to follow tropical cyclone activity worldwide;

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

We will also discuss the data on this website in class.

Roger


Date: Sun, 8 Mar 2009 14:20:21 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: sprirl galaxies

Hi All, Stephanie H. asked the very interesting question as to if the processes of spiral arms in galaxies is formed in a similar manner as hurricane spiral bands. Below are several sources on what are hypothesized to form spiral arms in galaxies;

http://www.ask.com/bar?q=what+do+galaxies+have+spiral+arms&page=1&qsrc=0&zoom=What+Is+the+Engine+of+an+Active+Galaxy%7CHow+Many+Galaxies+Are+There+in+the+Universe%7CDifferent+Types+of+Galaxies&ab=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fcurious.astro.cornell.edu%2Fquestion.php%3Fnumber%3D199

http://www.ask.com/bar?q=what+do+galaxies+have+spiral+arms&page=1&qsrc=0&zoom=What+Is+the+Engine+of+an+Active+Galaxy%7CHow+Many+Galaxies+Are+There+in+the+Universe%7CDifferent+Types+of+Galaxies&ab=2&u=http%3A%2F%2Fimagine.gsfc.nasa.gov%2Fdocs%2Fask_astro%2Fanswers%2F980108d.html

http://www.ask.com/bar?q=what+do+galaxies+have+spiral+arms&page=1&qsrc=0&zoom=What+Is+the+Engine+of+an+Active+Galaxy%7CHow+Many+Galaxies+Are+There+in+the+Universe%7CDifferent+Types+of+Galaxies&ab=3&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.space.com%2Fscienceastronomy%2Fperfect
_spirals_030917.html

The process is quite distinct from tropical cyclones. Let us know if you find other information on this subject.

The center of galaxies also is distinct from that of a tropical cyclone; see

http://www.ask.com/bar?q=What+is+at+the+center+of+galaxies+&page=1&qsrc=2417&zoom=What+Are+the+Three+Main+Types+of+Galaxies%7CDifferent+Types+of+Galaxies%7CHow+Are+Galaxies+Formed&ab=0&u=http%3A%2F%2Fcass.ucsd.edu%2Fpublic%2Ftutorial%2FMW.html

It appears to be a black hole, as reported on the above website;

"The evidence is mounting that Sag A* is indeed a black hole of 2-3 million times the mass of the sun."

Thank you for bringing up this very interesting question!

Roger


Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2009 10:01:01 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Fwd: Thursday class at 8am (fwd)

Hi All, Roger will be able to talk to us about his research on Thursday. He has recommended the readings below.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2006. Seventh Annual Roger Revelle Commemorative
Lecture: Disasters, Death, and Destruction: Making Sense of Recent Calamities, Oceanography, Special Issue: The Oceans and Human Health, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 138-147.

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/summary_report.pdf

And they could browse this:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/


Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2009 17:12:29 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: another reference

Hi All, Please add this report to your list of resources for class:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/globa_guide_intro.htm

Roger


Date: Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:02:58 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Katja Friedrich
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: class presentation

Hi Katja, Thanks! I have cced to our class and Dallas will post this information on the class website. Thank you again for contributing an outstanding talk!

Roger

On Wed, 11 Mar 2009, Katja Friedrich wrote:

> Roger,
>
> I put the presentation on the atoc web server:
> http://atoc.colorado.edu/~friedrik/IKE/Class_Roger/
>
> you find more images etc. at http://atoc.colorado.edu/~friedrik/IKE/
>
> Regards,
> Katja
>
> _____________________________________
>
> Dr. Katja Friedrich
>
> Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences
> University of Colorado
> UCB 311
> Boulder, CO 80309-0311


Date: Wed, 11 Mar 2009 11:51:17 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: RE: topic

Hi All, For our discussions on the climate change/tropical cyclone issue, please add this one.

Shepherd, J. M. and T. Knutson, 2007: The current debate on the linkage between global warming and hurricanes. Geography Compass, 1(1), 1-24.

Roger


Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 06:40:52 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: satellite images

Hi All, Here is another url to add to the list of useful weather websites;

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/

Roger


Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 06:42:34 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: another website

Hi All, For our discussions on climate, please look at this website also

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

Roger


Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 10:41:33 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday's class

Hi All, Thank you for attending this morning's class, and for the informative discussion! Since we are going to look into the climate/tropical cyclone issue, I thought it would be useful to present the 2007 IPCC and 2005 NRC reports for background. They can be obtained from

National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 208 pp.

Source for IPCC reports http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/index.htm

For my views, see

Pielke Sr., Roger A., 2008: A Broader View of the Role of Humans in the Climate System is Required In the Assessment of Costs and Benefits of Effective Climate Policy. Written Testimony for the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality of the Committee on Energy and Commerce Hearing. Climate Change: Costs of Inaction. Honorable Rick Boucher, Chairman. June 26, 2008, Washington, DC., 52 pp

Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.

See you tomorrow at 10am!

Roger


Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 19:28:28 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: new weblog on minimum tropical cyclone activity

Hi All, Here is a weblog from today on the low tropical cyclone activity.

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5449

Roger


Date: Sat, 14 Mar 2009 13:57:19 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Class for April 3

Hi All, Thank you for another excellent class yesterday and for very good questions! For the two that Stephanie H. asked about (the wave characteristics of extratropical cyclones and for the concept of the tipping point), for the first one see the weather lab notes [Chapter 3] and also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave.

For the concept of "tipping point", I actually suggest that this term obscures that climate is always changing and has never been static. There have been regime changes on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We discuss
these shifts and the nonlinearity of the climate system in the papers

Rial, J., R.A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, J. Canadell, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de Noblet-Ducoudre, R. Prinn, J. Reynolds, and J.D. Salas, 2004: Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds within the Earth's climate system. Climatic Change, 65, 11-38.

Pielke, R.A. Sr., H.J. Schellnhuber, and D. Sahagian, 2003: Non-linearities in the Earth system. Global Change Newsletter, No. 55, 11-15.

Please let me know by e-mail if you have further questions, or bring them to class next time.

For our next class (the Friday after Spring break - April 3), read Chapters 6, 7 and 8 in the P&P Hurricanes book. This provide an effective summary of some of the issues Roger Jr. raised yesterday in class.

Also, in the Emanuel book, read Chapters 22-26.

In addition, let us know paper(s) you would like to discuss in class. Your presentations have been very effective at broadening the information in class on tropical cyclones.

We will continue to discuss the papers and urls that are listed in our earlier e-mails.

Have a good Spring Break! Roger


Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:42:58 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: paper

Hi All, Please add this paper to those you read:

Dorst, N.M., 2007: The National Hurricane Research Project: 50 Years of Research, Rough Rides, and
Name Changes
. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, Issue 10, 1566- 1588.
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1566.

Roger


Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 15:33:54 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Re: paper (fwd)

Hi All, Whitney has offered to discuss this paper at our next class (April 3rd). Dallas - please also post as a url on our class website.

Lawrence, J. R., Gedzelman, S.D., Gamache, J. Black, M., 2002: Stable isotope ratios of precipitation collected at 3km elevation in Hurricane Olivia (1994). J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 67-82.

Roger


Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:32:24 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: papers

Hi All

Please let me know who else would like to present a paper on Friday. So far we have

Whitney on Lawrence, J. R., Gedzelman, S.D., Gamache, J. Black, M., 2002: Stable isotope ratios of precipitation collected at 3km elevation in Hurricane Olivia (1994). J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 67-82.

If there are others, please let us know and send us the web link if you have it.

Roger


Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 11:51:48 -0600 (MDT)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Re: papers

On Friday I will present Fita et al., "Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci (2007)

Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 12:02:00 -0600 (MDT)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: sp09
Subject: just kidding...

...Gene presented that one a few weeks ago. Instead, I will present:

INTERNAL CONTROL OF HURRICANE INTENSITY VARIABILITY: THE DUAL NATURE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY MIXING, Christopher M.
Rozoff1, James P. Kossin1, Wayne H. Schubert, Pedro J. Mulero1, J. Atmos. Sci, 2008 (submitted)

I think we talked about this briefly in class but I'm pretty sure no one has done an in depth presentation on it - right?

Cheers, Stephanie


Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 13:16:50 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Stephanie A Higgins
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: just kidding...

Hi Stephanie, This is an excellent choice! We did not go into this subject very far, and this paper will add valuable insight into this issue. Roger


Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 13:19:20 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Re: just kidding...

Hi Whitney, This will be a very important presentation as it discusses how tropical cyclones can cause havoc well inland. If you have photos of the damage either right after it happened, or recently, that would also be quite informative.

Roger


Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2009 14:42:36 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: MS THESIS DEFENSE - Carl Drews (fwd)

Hi All, This may be of interest for you. Roger

Date: Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:25:36 -0600
From: Laurie B. Conway
To: atoc-faculty@lists.Colorado.EDU, atoc-students@lists.Colorado.EDU,
atoc-researchers@lists.Colorado.EDU
Subject: MS THESIS DEFENSE - Carl Drews

Time and Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2009 at 2:30pm
Location: ATOC Conference Room, Folsom Stadium Room 255-12 (see directions below)

Title: Application of Storm Surge Modeling to Moses' Crossing of the Red Sea; and to Manila Bay, the Philippines.

Abstract: Storm surge occurs in low-lying coastal areas when strong winds blow the sea surface up onto the land. The resulting inundation can pose a great danger to lives and property. This study uses an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) and the results from a mesoscale atmospheric model to simulate storm surge and wind setdown. Two case studies are presented. We reconstruct the crossing of the Red Sea by Moses and the Israelites, as described in Exodus 14. The eastern Nile delta of Egypt matches the Biblical narrative and provides a hydrological mechanism for water to remain on both sides of the dry passage. We also evaluate the vulnerability of Manila Bay and the surrounding areas to a Category 3 typhoon. The simulated surge heights depend heavily on the wind direction and the coastal topography.


Date: Fri, 3 Apr 2009 08:19:07 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -
Subject: class paper (fwd)

Hi All, These two short essays are valuable for our discussions on climate change and tropical cyclones.

Roger

Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R., and Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2009. Do we need better predictions to adapt to changing climate? Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.

Harrison, S, and D. Stainforth, 2009: Predicting climate change: Lessons from reductionism, emergence, and the past. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.


Date: Fri, 3 Apr 2009 16:09:19 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday April 10 class

Hi All, For Friday April 10th, Stephanie H. is scheduled to present a paper, and Whitney will present information on the tropical cyclone associated flooding from Camille in Virgina. We also will plan to discuss the role of Saharan dust on tropical cyclones; see

Carlson, T. N., and J. M. Prospero, 1972: The large-scale movement of Saharan air outbreaks over the northern equatorial Atlantic. J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 283– 297.

Evan, A. T., J. Dunion, J. A. Foley, A. K. Heidinger, and C. S. Velden, 2006: New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19813, doi:10.1029/2006GL026408.

Karyampudi, V.M., and H.F. Pierce, 2002: Synoptic-scale influence of the Saharan air layer on tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3100–3128.

African dust can be seen in these images:

http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=african+dust&btnG=Search+Images&gbv=2&aq=f&oq=

Zhang H., G. M. McFarquhar, S. M. Saleeby, W. R. Cotton, 2007: Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14812, doi:10.1029/2007GL029876.

We will also discuss proposals to modify tropical cyclones:

STORMFURY:

Willoughby, H., D. Jorgensen, R. Black, and S. Rosenthal, 1985: Project STORMFURY: A Scientific Chronicle 1962–1983. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 505–514.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/stormfury_era.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury

Other proposals

Cotton, W.R., H. Zhang, G.M. McFarquhar, and S.M. Saleeby, 2007: Should we consider polluting hurricanes to reduce their intensity? J. Wea. Mod., 39, 70-73.

Cotton, W.R., 2007: Cloud seeding concepts. Southwest Hydrology, 6, 16-17

Gray, W.M., 1973: Feasibility of beneficial hurricane modification by carbon dust seeding. Atmospheric Science Paper 196, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 129 pp plus appendices.

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/Northeast_tropical/netropical_2007.pdf

Landsea, C., 2006: Towards a National Agenda for Hurricane Science and Engineering:Academic Perspectives Academic Research Perspectives, National Science Board Workshop, April 18, 2006.

Finally, if there are weather jargon words used in these papers, please e-mail and we will define them for class.

Have a good weekend!

Roger


Date: Mon, 6 Apr 2009 08:35:19 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: url

Hi All, We will also discuss aspects of my earlier book on hurricanes either this Friday or next Friday.

Pielke, R.A., 1990: The hurricane. Routledge Press, London, England, 228 pp.

Roger


Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:35:10 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday April 17th class

Hi All, For Friday April 17th, we will first have the presentations by Whitney and Stephanie H. Then I plan to provide a summary of the topics we covered this semester in order to highlight the major findings that of the class.

The broad topics include: tropical cyclone genesis; tropical cyclone intensification and dissipation; relationship to extratropical cyclones; observational platforms; forecast models of tropical cyclones; the climate-tropical cyclone connection; paleo-record of tropical cyclones; and impacts of and vulnerabilities to tropical cyclones. I will ask each of you to help fill in these findings with us.

I may show a powerpoint from a hurricane scientists that was sent to me titled "Hurricane Size vs. Intensity".

The classes of April 23rd at 8am (Thursday) and at 10am on April 24th (Friday) will be our last class meetings. These times are reserved for your class presentation, and you have as much time to present as you will need. Please send us your titles as soon as you can, and Dallas will post.

Roger


Date: Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:54:22 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class

Hi All, Despite the expected snow, we will still have class tomorrow. We will start with Whitney and Stephanie H.'s talk and then I plan to summarize major conclusions from the class. Please come prepared to discussion your major findings, as well as any questions. I may have one more powerpoint talk from a colleague to present also.

For our two classes next week, please send Dallas your titles to post (with ccs to all of us).

Roger


Date: Sat, 18 Apr 2009 10:48:50 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: last two classes

Hi All, Thank you again for the two excellent presentations by Whitney and Stephanie H. yesterday. Please send Dallas your powerpoint talks to post, if that is okay with you. Also, Whitney, please send us the link to the book (e.g. from Amazon).

For our class Thursday 8am (April 23rd) we will collectively overview the major findings of the class. Stephanie E. and Gene will present their talks.

On Friday, for our class at 10 am, Stephanie H., Kevin and Whitney will present.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend! It will be quite a bit warmer next week.

Roger


From: Roger A Pielke Sr.
Sent: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:09:44 -0600 (MDT)
To: sp09
Subject: Thursday

Hi All, As a reminder, we will have two talks tomorrow (Stephanie E. and Gene). After the talks, we will have a discussion of the major findings from the class.

See you at 8am.

Roger


Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:36:50 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday's class

Hi All, Thanks again Stephanie for a very succinct and effective presentations on models today. As we discussed, please add the links (citation) for the papers you used in your talk. This will be an invaluable summary for anyone interested in atmospheric modeling.

Whitney - thank you also for the doughnuts for the class! This always helps with 8 am classes.

For tomorrow, we will have the four remaining talks, and will start at 9am as we decided on this morning. See all of you then.

Roger


Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 16:16:26 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Fwd: REMINDER: Hurricane Hugo 20th Anniversary Symposium - Call for Papers (fwd)

Hi All, FYI

Roger
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bernadette Hadnagy <bhadnagy@atcouncil.org>
Date: Apr 23, 2009 5:40 PM
Subject: REMINDER: Hurricane Hugo 20th Anniversary Symposium - Call for Papers
To: atc@atcouncil.org

Dear colleague,

I am pleased to advise that the Applied Technology Council (ATC) is organizing the *Hurricane Hugo 20th Anniversary Symposium on Building Safer Communities - Improving Disaster Resilience*. The Symposium will be held in Charleston, South Carolina on October 22-23, 2009. Technical sessions are planned on the following topics:

· The possible consequences of constructing buildings at the coast;

· Current tools of the design, planning and building professions for successful coastal construction;

· Current status of coastal disaster loss reduction capabilities and approaches;

· Needed research and tools for improving disaster resilience.

* *

*Call for Abstract Information*: Persons interested in presenting a paper on one of the specified topics (see Preliminary Program in the attached announcement) should submit a one-page abstract not to exceed 200 words no later than *April 30, 2009*, to ATC (e-mail, atc@ATCouncil.org; fax, 650-593-2320). Selected authors will be notified by June 18, 2009. Final papers (12 pages in length, maximum) will be due October 5, 2009.

In addition to participating in the *Symposium*, exhibit opportunities are also available. Exhibitor information, and other information about the * Symposium*, is available in the attached brochure and online at http://www.atcouncil.org/rel030109.shtml

If you would like to participate, exhibit, and/or co-sponsor the event, or to support the *Symposium* in other ways, please contact Bill Coulbourne, ATC Director of Wind and Flood Hazard Mitigation (302-227-6918 or
bcoulbourne@atcouncil.org) or me. For your information, current (non-financial) co-sponsors are:

· North Carolina Sea Grant

· South Carolina Sea Grant

· NOAA Coastal Services Center

· ASCE South Carolina Section

· Structural Engineers Association of South Carolina

· Clemson University

· The Citadel

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,

Bernadette Hadnagy
*Operations Manager, Conference Coordinator

*Applied Technology Council
201 Redwood Shores Pkwy, Suite 240
Redwood City, CA 94065 USA
Phone, 650/595-1542
Fax, 650/593-2320
E-mail: bhadnagy@ATCouncil.org
Web & OnLine Store


Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:38:12 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Class

Hi All, Thank you again for an excellent class. I was very pleased with all of your presentations and your interactions in class!

Dallas will look for your powerpoints and she will post on our class website when you send to her.

With Best Regards, Roger




Class Presentations:

Doss, Whitney, 2009: Applications of Stable Isotope Geochemistry in Tropical Cyclone Research: Hurricanes as Fractionation Chambers with a “Paleo- Perspective”, April 24, 2009.

Evan, Stephanie, 2009: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models. April 23, 2009.

Higgins, Stephanie, 2009: Moist Processes: Modeling the Roles of Cumulus Convection and Sea Spray in Determining Hurricane Intensity. April 24, 2009.

Longenecker, Gene, 2009: Evaluating Hurricane Intensity Intensity-Based Losses Using HAZUS HAZUS-MH. April 23, 2009.

Sharp, Kevin, 2009: Climatic Oscillations and their Influence on Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin. April 24, 2009.




Current Related Literature:

Abbot, D. S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: A tropical and subtropical land-sea-atmosphere drought oscillation mechanism. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4458-4466.

Baker, A.K., M.D. Parker, and M.D.  Eastin, 2008: Environmental ingredients for supercells and tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Bell, M. M., and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Observed structure, evolution and potential intensity of category 5 hurricane Isabel (2003) from 12 -14 September. Mon Wea. Rev., In Press.

Bender, M.A., I. Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3965–3989.

Besonen, M. R., R. S. Bradley, M. Mudelsee, M. B. Abbott, and P. Francus, 2008: A 1,000-year, annually-resolved record of hurricane activity from Boston, Massachusetts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14705,
doi:10.1029/2008GL033950.

Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff , 2006:  Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis.  J. of Applied Meteorology. 45:3, 399-415.

Brennan, M.J., C.C. Hennon, R.D. Knabb, 2008: The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Camargo, S.J., and A.G. Barnston, 2008: Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A, 59, 428-443.

Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel and A.H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834.

Cardone, V., 2009: HURRICANE METOCEAN HINDCASTING. 25th Minerals Management Information Transfer Meeting, New Orleans, LA, January 6-8, 2009.

Carlson, T. N., and J. M. Prospero, 1972: The large-scale movement of Saharan air outbreaks over the northern equatorial Atlantic. J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 283– 297.

Chang, P.L., B.J.D., Jou, and J. Zhang, 2008: An Algorithm for Tracking Eyes of Tropical Cyclones. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Chen, T.C., S.Y. Wang, M.C. Yen, and A.J. Clark, 2008: Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Chylek, P., and G. Lesins, 2008: Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010036.

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Emanuel, K., J. Callaghan, and P. Otto, 2008: A hypothesis for the re-development of warm-core cyclones over northern Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3863-3872.

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Evan, A. T., J. Dunion, J. A. Foley, A. K. Heidinger, and C. S. Velden, 2006: New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19813, doi:10.1029/2006GL026408.

Fita, L., R. Romero, A. Luque, K. Emanuel and C. Ramis, 2007: Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 41–56.

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Grossman, I., and M.G. Morgan, 2009: Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, and Scientific Uncertainty: What do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done? Climatic Change, submitted.

Harrison, S, and D. Stainforth, 2009: Predicting climate change: Lessons from reductionism, emergence, and the past. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.

Hasling, J., 2009: WRC HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE. GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES: PAST – PRESENT – FUTURE. MMS ITM, January 6, 2009.

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Knaff, J.A.,  2009:   Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones.   Int. J. Climatology., published early on line, 11pp.  DOI: 10.1002/joc.1746 

Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2007: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships. Weather Forecasting, 22:1, 71–88.

Knaff, J.A., C. R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T. P. Marchok, J. M. Gross, and C. J. McAdie, 2007: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence, Wea. Forecasting, 22:4, 781–791.

Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008:  Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 23:1, 17-28.

Knapp, K.R., M.C. Kruk, D.H . Levinson, and E.J. Gibney, 2009: Archive Compiles New Resource for Global Tropical Cyclone Research. Eos, 90:6, 46-47.

Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, I.M. Held and R.E. Tuleya, 2007: Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-Grid regional model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1549–1565. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1549

Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi, and I.M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience 1, 359 - 364. FAQ

Korty, R. L., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: The dynamic response of the winter stratosphere to an equable climate surface temperature gradient. J. Climate, 20, 5213-5228.

Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, and J. R. Scott, 2008: Tropical cyclone-induced upper-ocean mixing and climate: Application to equable climates. J. Climate, 21, 638-654.

Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22:1, 89–101.

Landsea, C., 2006: Towards a National Agenda for Hurricane Science and Engineering:Academic Perspectives Academic Research Perspectives, National Science Board Workshop, April 18, 2006.

Landsea, C.W., 2007: Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900. Eos Trans. AGU, 88(18), doi:10.1029/2007EO180001

Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, 2006:  Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454. 

LaRow, T.E., Y.K. Lim, D.W. Shin, E. Chassignet and S. Cocke, 2008: Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations. J. Climate, 21, 3191-3206.

Lawrence, J. R., Gedzelman, S.D., Gamache, J. Black, M., 2002: Stable isotope ratios of precipitation collected at 3km elevation in Hurricane Olivia (1994). J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 67-82.

Lowag, A., M. L. Black, and M. D. Eastin, 2008: Structure and intensity changes of Hurricane Bret (1999).  Part I: Environmental Influences, Monthly Weather Review, 136, 4320-4333.

Luo, Z., G. L. Stephens, K. A. Emanuel, D. G. Vane, N. Tourville, and J. M. Haynes, 2008: On the use of CloudSat and MODIS data for estimating hurricane intensity. IEEE Geoscience Remote Sensing Lett., 5, 13-16.

Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, and G. Goni, 2008: Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes.  Weather and Forecasting, 23:1, 3-16.

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McCloskey, T.A., and G. Keller, 2008: 5000 year sedimentary record of hurricane strikes on the central coast of Belize. Quaternary International, doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.03.003

McCloskey, T.A., and J.T. Knowles, 2008: Migration of the tropical cyclone zone throughout the Holocene. In: Hurricanes and Climate Change, J.B. Elsner and T.H. Jagger, Eds., 61-72, Springer.

McTaggart-Cowan, R., G.D. Deane, L.F. Bosart, C.A. Davis, and T.J. Galarneau, 2008: Climatology of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic (1948-2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1284-1304.

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Nguyen, V. S., R. K. Smith, and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in three dimensions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134-632, pp. 563-582.

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Pasquero, C., and K. Emanuel, 2008: Tropical cyclones and transient upper-ocean warming. J. Climate, 21, 149-162.

Powell, M.D., E.W. Uhlhorn, and J.D. Kepert, 2008: Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Pratt, A.S., and J.L. Evans, 2008: Potential Impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on Numerical Model Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

Rappaport, E.N., J.L. Franklin, L.A. Avila, S.R. Baig, J.L. Beven, et al. 2008: Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Weather and Forecasting: In Press

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This information was taken from the MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY, SEPTEMBER, 2008
PREPARED BY Gary Padgett and Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)

WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS

Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_hurricane_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season

The official storm reports for some of the individual cyclones are already available on TPC/NHC's website at the following URL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008atlan.shtml

The extremely detailed online Wikipedia report on Hurricane Ike may be accessed at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ike

This report contains many links to other sources of information. A graphic depicting Ike's storm-total rainfall may be found at:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/ike2008.html

The official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane Ike is not yet available, but additional information may be found at the following link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/tws/MIATWSAT_nov.shtml?

The online Wikipedia report on Tropical Storm Josephine may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Josephine_(2008)

The online Wikipedia report on Hurricane Kyle may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kyle_(2008)

A graphic depicting rainfall triggered in Puerto Rico by the pre-Kyle disturbance may be found at:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/kyle2008.html

The online Wikipedia report on Tropical Storm Laura may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Laura_(2008)

The official storm reports on both Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell are already available on TPC/NHC's website at the following URL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008epac.shtml

The online Wikipedia report on Tropical Storm Karina may be found at the following URL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Karina_(2008)

An online Wikipedia report containing information about the Midwest floods may be found at the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Midwest_floods

Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/

Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml

Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen.

Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen.

Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the equator, can be found at:

(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The link to the site is:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/

Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage which is very user-friendly:

http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm

Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone

JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov




Notes from Dr. Pielke:

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