Global Earthquake Model website.

GEM's initial claims for uniform earthquake risk estimates throughout the world were ambitious, predicated by the notion that earthquake hazards were uniformly quantifiable globally.

GEM's present approach (2012), to improve earthquake hazard assessment where this is possible, and from it to quanitify useful engineering parameters on a regional basis is an achievable goal, and of great value to the earthquake engineering community.

The products of GEM, however, may remain inaccessible to many millions of people at risk in the developing world, where earthquake engineering or guidance on sound construction methodologies rarely trickles down to the village level.

In some countries, where earthquake resistant guidelines exist, their application may be defeated by corrupt or ignorant contractors, or by disinterested public officials.

 

GEM's impact

GEM's approach to improving the methodology and delivery of quantified estimates of earthquake risk is commendable and will succeed best in those countries where long historical and paleoseismic records of seismic activity are available. This will be especially effective where these data are supplemented by geodetic and instrumental seismic data.

In some countries these data are unavailable, and may always remain so. It thus appears probable that although much improvement will be possible, GEM's success will be globally uneven.

Quantified estimates of future earthquake risk are an essential input for the design of engineered structures: dams, power plants and civic structures. They are less frequently applied to the dwellings where people live in the developing nations. In the past century, as in recent years, the many deaths that accompany earthquakes in the developing world are most frequently the result of the collapse of dwellings.

There is thus a case to be made for a balance between funding sophisticated risk assessment and funding for grass-roots approaches such as Geohazards or Buildchange who recognize the importance of educating the home-owners and contractors responsible for the present day constructions that pose threats to future generations.

GEM has an important role in focussing attention on earthquake hazards in the developing nations and it is probable that an increased national awareness of the importance in defining, and applying, building codes at all levels of society will accompany their continued efforts.

Some of the issues involved are discussed in the following references

Sarewitz, D., Brick by Brick, 5 May 2010, Nature 465, 29 (2010), doi:10.1038/465029a

"If scientists are serious about helping to reduce the vulnerability of poor regions to earthquakes and other hazards, they would do well to emulate the model of GeoHazards International."

Sanderson K, Earthquake risk calculator goes global, 2 June 2010, Nature, doi:10.1038/news.2010.263

"The GEM project, which began in 2006, involves partners from national governments, international bodies such as the World Bank and private sponsors. It will be fully working by the end of 2013, if not sooner"

Bilham, R., The Seismic Future of Cities, Bull Earthquake Eng
DOI 10.1007/s10518-009-9147-0

"In the developing nations, and in certain developed nations, corruption and ignorance currently circumvents the best efforts of the construction industry to build safe dwellings. Both will need to be overcome if the projected increase in fatalities from earthquakes is to be arrested."

Bilham, R., Lessons from the Haiti earthquake, Nature 463, 878-879 (18 February 2010) doi:10.1038/463878a

"In recent earthquakes, buildings have acted as weapons of mass destruction. It is time to formulate plans for a new United Nations mission - teams of inspectors to ensure that people do not construct buildings designed to kill their occupants."

Ambraseys, N and Bilham, R. (2011) Corruption Kills, Nature 469, 143-145. 13 Jan 2011. 20 page supplement nature.com/hvewfl

"nations with a history of significant earthquakes and known corruption issues should stand reminded that an unregulated construction industry is a potential killer"