Research shows that climate change will likely impact plant characteristics like leaf size, timing of greening, and plant height. But to what extent, and how those differences will vary across ecosystems, remains unknown. New research from ESIIL Postdoctoral Researcher Katya Jay, published today in New Phytologist, found that how plants might respond to climate change could have a greater impact on surrounding ecosystems than the differences between climate scenarios.

The study integrated local observations from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research site, a high-alpine ecosystem in the mountains outside Boulder, Colorado, into climate models. Scientists have collected a wide variety of measurements at this site, including data on plant communities, snowpack, and warming trends—some date back to the 1950s. Jay's research began with modeling experiments in 2022 when she was a postdoctoral researcher at INSTAAR. 

The team designed model experiments to simulate potential changes in plant characteristics that reflect the uncertainty in how alpine plant communities will respond to environmental change. They also modeled how these ecosystems might respond to two different future climate scenarios, a medium emissions and warming path, and a second, higher emissions and warming path.

While specific impacts on alpine ecosystems remain unknown, researchers are certain that plants will continue to change as temperatures rise—understanding these plant responses will be crucial for predicting how alpine ecosystems may function in a warming world.

Read the full study in New Phytologist.