Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder

Jamie Scott

Current Research

Marine Ecosystems

Regional Sciences and Applications

Climate Adaptation and Mitigation

CMIP6 Air Temperature over N. America in Summer

CMIP6 Ensemble Mean Near Surface Air Temperature for Summer generated from NOAA Climate Change Web Portal.

Mid-century ssp585 temperature change (upper-right panel) is predicted to be largest over interior North America in summer. Changes greater than 4 degrees centigrade fill all latitudes between 35N-60N. Largest changes are over the northern Rockies / high plains of northern US and southern Canada.

CMIP6 Air Temperature over N. America in Winter

CMIP6 Ensemble Mean Near Surface Air Temperature for Winter generated from NOAA Climate Change Web Portal.

Mid-century ssp585 temperature change (upper-right panel) is predicted to be largest over higher latitudes of North America in winter. Winter warming in the US is largest (4-5 degrees C) in the mid-west and great lakes regions. Interannual variablility (lower-right panel) is reduced (blue colors) in mid-century winter where seasonal snowfall (or sea ice) is less common.

View Publications

  • Braun CD; Lezama-Ochoa N; Farchadi N; Arostegui MC; Alexander M; Allyn A; Bograd SJ; Brodie S; Crear DP; Curtis TH. (Aug 2023). Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean. Science Advances , 9(32). 10.1126/sciadv.adi2718
  • Braun CD; Arostegui MC; Farchadi N; Alexander M; Afonso P; Allyn A; Bograd SJ; Brodie S; Crear DP; Culhane EF. (Jun 2023). Building use‐inspired species distribution models: Using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance. Ecological Applications. 10.1002/eap.2893
  • Alexander MA; Scott JD; Jacox MG; Deser C; Amaya DJ; Capotondi A; Phillips AS. (Jun 2023). A survey of coastal conditions around the continental US using a high-resolution ocean reanalysis. Progress in Oceanography , 216. 10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103055
  • Amaya DJ; Jacox MG; Alexander MA; Scott JD; Deser C; Capotondi A; Phillips AS. (Mar 2023). Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America. Nature Communications , 14(1). 10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0
  • Amaya DJ; Alexander MA; Scott JD; Jacox MG. (Jan 2023). An evaluation of high-resolution ocean reanalyses in the California current system. Progress in Oceanography , 210, 102951-102951. 10.1016/j.pocean.2022.102951
  • Hughes M; Swales D; Scott JD; Alexander M; Mahoney K; McCrary RR; Cifelli R; Bukovsky M. (Feb 2022). Changes in extreme integrated water vapor transport on the US west coast in NA-CORDEX, and relationship to mountain and inland precipitation. Climate Dynamics. 10.1007/s00382-022-06168-6
  • Amaya DJ; Jacox MG; Dias J; Alexander MA; Karnauskas KB; Scott JD; Gehne M. (Jan 2022). Subseasonal‐to‐seasonal forecast skill in the California Current System and its connection to coastal Kelvin waves. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 10.1029/2021jc017892
  • Hare JA; Borggaard DL; Alexander MA; Bailey MM; Bowden AA; Damon‐Randall K; Didden JT; Hasselman DJ; Kerns T; McCrary R. (Dec 2021). A Review of River Herring Science in Support of Species Conservation and Ecosystem Restoration. AFS Transactions , 13(6), 627-664. 10.1002/mcf2.10174
  • Pershing AJ; Alexander MA; Brady DC; Brickman D; Curchitser EN; Diamond AW; McClenachan L; Mills KE; Nichols OC; Pendleton DE. (Aug 2021). Climate impacts on the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene , 9(1). 10.1525/elementa.2020.00076
  • Alexander MA; Scott JD. (Jun 2021). The role of Ekman ocean heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere response to ENSO (vol 21, pg 5688, 2008). Journal of Climate , 34(12), 5151-5151. 10.1175/2008JCLI2382.1
  • Siedlecki SA; Salisbury J; Gledhill DK; Bastidas C; Meseck S; McGarry K; Hunt CW; Alexander M; Lavoie D; Wang ZA. (May 2021). Projecting ocean acidification impacts for the Gulf of Maine to 2050: New tools and expectations. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene , 9(1). 10.1525/elementa.2020.00062
  • Brickman D; Alexander MA; Pershing A; Scott JD; Wang Z. (May 2021). Projections of physical conditions in the Gulf of Maine in 2050. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene , 9(1). 10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00055
  • Mahoney K; Scott JD; Alexander M; McCrary R; Hughes M; Swales D; Bukovsky M. (Jan 2021). Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models. Climate Dynamics , 3081-3102. 10.1007/s00382-021-05632-z
  • Jacox MG; Alexander MA; Bograd SJ; Scott JD. (Aug 2020). Thermal displacement by marine heatwaves. Nature , 584(7819), 82-+. 10.1038/s41586-020-2534-z
  • Allyn AJ; Alexander MA; Franklin BS; Massiot-Granier F; Pershing AJ; Scott JD; Mills KE. (Apr 2020). Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change. PLoS One , 15(4). 10.1371/journal.pone.0231595
  • Alexander MA; Shin S-I; Scott JD; Curchitser E; Stock C. (Jan 2020). The Response of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to Climate Change. Journal of Climate , 33(2), 405-428. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0117.1
  • Pershing, AJ; Record, NR; Franklin, BS; Kennedy, BT; McClenachan, L; Mills, KE; Scott, JD; Thomas, AC; Wolff, NH. (Sep 2019). Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA , 116(37). 10.1073/pnas.1901084116
  • Le Bris, A, KE Mills, RA Wahle, Y Chen, MA Alexander, AJ Allyn, JG Schuetz, JD Scott and AJ Pershing. (Feb 2018). Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA , 115(8). 10.1073/pnas.1711122115
  • Turi, G, M Alexander, NS Lovenduski, A Capotondi, J Scott, C Stock, J Dunne, J John and M Jacox. (Feb 2018). Response of O-2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model. OCEAN SCIENCE , 14(1). 10.5194/os-14-69-2018
  • Alexander, MA, JD Scott, KD Friedland, KE Mills, JA Nye, AJ Pershing and AC Thomas. (Jan 2018). Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans. ELEMENTA-SCIENCE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE , 6. 10.1525/elementa.191
  • Novakova, E, DC Woodhams, SM Rodriguez-Ruano, RM Brucker, JW Leff, A Maharaj, A Amir, R Knight and J Scott. (Apr 2017). Mosquito Microbiome Dynamics, a Background for Prevalence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus. FRONTIERS IN MICROBIOLOGY , 8. 10.3389/fmicb.2017.00526
  • Newman, M, MA Alexander, TR Ault, KM Cobb, C Deser, E Di Lorenzo, NJ Mantua, AJ Miller, S Minobe, H Nakamura, N Schneider, DJ Vimont, AS Phillips, JD Scott and CA Smith. (Jun 2016). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 29(12). 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1
  • Pershing AJ; Alexander MA; Hernandez CM; Kerr LA; Le Bris A; Mills KE; Nye JA; Record NR; Scannell HA; Scott JD. (Apr 2016). Response to Comments on "Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery". Science , 352(6284). 10.1126/science.aae0463
  • Scott JD; Alexander MA; Murray DR; Swales D; Eischeid J. (Apr 2016). THE CLIMATE CHANGE WEB PORTAL A System to Access and Display Climate and Earth System Model Output from the CMIP5 Archive. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 97(4), 523-530. 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00035.1
  • Hare, JA, WE Morrison, MW Nelson, MM Stachura, EJ Teeters, RB Griffis, MA Alexander, JD Scott, L Alade, RJ Bell, AS Chute, KL Curti, TH Curtis, D Kircheis, JF Kocik, SM Lucey, CT McCandless, LM Milke, DE Richardson, E Robillard, HJ Walsh, MC McManus, KE Marancik and CA Griswold. (Feb 2016). A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast US Continental Shelf. PLOS ONE , 11(2). 10.1371/journal.pone.0146756
  • Lynch, PD, JA Nye, JA Hare, CA Stock, MA Alexander, JD Scott, KL Curti and K Drew. (Dec 2015). Projected ocean warming creates a conservation challenge for river herring populations. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE , 72(2). 10.1093/icesjms/fsu134
  • Pershing, AJ, MA Alexander, CM Hernandez, LA Kerr, A Le Bris, KE Mills, JA Nye, NR Record, HA Scannell, JD Scott, GD Sherwood and AC Thomass. (Nov 2015). Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery. SCIENCE , 350(6262). 10.1126/science.aac9819
  • Alexander, MA, JD Scott, D Swales, M Hughes, K Mahoney and CA Smith. (Jun 2015). Moisture Pathways into the US Intermountain West Associated with Heavy Winter Precipitation Events*. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY , 16(3). 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0139.1
  • Mahoney, K, M Alexander, JD Scott and J Barsugli. (Nov 2013). High-Resolution Downscaled Simulations of Warm-Season Extreme Precipitation Events in the Colorado Front Range under Past and Future Climates. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 26(21). 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00744.1
  • Alexander, MA, JD Scott, K Mahoney and J Barsugli. (Nov 2013). Greenhouse Gas-Induced Changes in Summer Precipitation over Colorado in NARCCAP Regional Climate Models. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 26(21). 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00088.1
  • Koljalg, U, RH Nilsson, K Abarenkov, L Tedersoo, AFS Taylor, M Bahram, ST Bates, TD Bruns, J Bengtsson-Palme, TM Callaghan, B Douglas, T Drenkhan, U Eberhardt, M Duenas, T Grebenc, GW Griffith, M Hartmann, PM Kirk, P Kohout, E Larsson, BD Lindahl, R Luecking, MP Martin, PB Matheny, NH Nguyen, T Niskanen, J Oja, KG Peay, U Peintner, M Peterson, K Poldmaa, L Saag, I Saar, A Schuessler, JA Scott, C Senes, ME Smith, A Suija, DL Taylor, MT Telleria, M Weiss and KH Larsson. (Nov 2013). Towards a unified paradigm for sequence-based identification of fungi. MOLECULAR ECOLOGY , 22(21). 10.1111/mec.12481
  • Bates, ST, S Ahrendt, HM Bik, TD Bruns, JG Caporaso, J Cole, M Dwan, N Fierer, D Gu, S Houston, R Knight, J Leff, C Lewis, JP Maestre, D McDonald, RH Nilsson, A Porras-Alfaro, V Robert, C Schoch, J Scott, DL Taylor, LW Parfrey and JE Stajich. (Jan 2013). Meeting Report: Fungal ITS Workshop (October 2012). STANDARDS IN GENOMIC SCIENCES , 8(1). 10.4056/sigs.3737409
  • Alexander, MA, H Seo, SP Xie and JD Scott. (May 2012). ENSO's Impact on the Gap Wind Regions of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 25(10). 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00320.1
  • Capotondi, A, MA Alexander, NA Bond, EN Curchitser and JD Scott. (Apr 2012). Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS , 117. 10.1029/2011JC007409
  • Deser, C, AS Phillips, RA Tomas, YM Okumura, MA Alexander, A Capotondi, JD Scott, YO Kwon and M Ohba. (Apr 2012). ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 25(8). 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1
  • Mahoney, K, MA Alexander, G Thompson, JJ Barsugli and JD Scott. (Feb 2012). Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE , 2(2). 10.1038/NCLIMATE1344
  • Newman, M, MA Alexander and JD Scott. (Nov 2011). An empirical model of tropical ocean dynamics. CLIMATE DYNAMICS , 37(10-Sep). 10.1007/s00382-011-1034-0
  • Alexander, MA, DJ Vimont, P Chang and JD Scott. (Jun 2010). The Impact of Extratropical Atmospheric Variability on ENSO: Testing the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism Using Coupled Model Experiments. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 23(11). 10.1175/2010JCLI3205.1
  • Hare, JA, MA Alexander, MJ Fogarty, EH Williams and JD Scott. (Mar 2010). Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate-population model. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS , 20(2). 10.1890/08-1863.1
  • Blade, I, M Newman, MA Alexander and JD Scott. (Dec 2008). The Late Fall Extratropical Response to ENSO: Sensitivity to Coupling and Convection in the Tropical West Pacific. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 21(23). 10.1175/2008JCLI1612.1
  • Alexander, MA and JD Scott. (Nov 2008). The Role of Ekman Ocean Heat Transport in the Northern Hemisphere Response to ENSO. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 21(21). 10.1175/2008JCLI2382.1
  • Alexander, MA, L Matrosova, C Penland, JD Scott and P Chang. (Jan 2008). Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear inverse model predictions of the PDO. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 21(2). 10.1175/2007JCLI1849.1
  • Alexander, M, J Yin, G Branstator, A Capotondi, C Cassou, R Cullather, YO Kwon, J Norris, J Scott and I Wainer. (Jun 2006). Extratropical atmosphere-ocean variability in CCSM3. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 19(11). 10.1175/JCLI3743.1
  • Alexander, MA, US Bhatt, JE Walsh, MS Timlin, JS Miller and JD Scott. (Mar 2004). The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 17(5). 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0890:TARTRA>2.0.CO;2
  • Alexander, MA, I Blade, M Newman, JR Lanzante, NC Lau and JD Scott. (Aug 2002). The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 15(16). 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2
  • Alexander, M and J Scott. (Jul 2002). The influence of ENSO on air-sea interaction in the Atlantic. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , 29(14). 10.1029/2001GL014347
  • Alexander, MA, MS Timlin and JD Scott. (Jan 2001). Winter-to-winter recurrence of sea surface temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth anomalies. PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY , 49(4-Jan). 10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00015-5
  • Alexander MA; Scott JD; Deser C. (Jul 2000). Processes that influence sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth variability in a coupled model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans , 105(C7), 16823-16842. 10.1029/2000JC900074
  • Newman, M, MA Alexander, CR Winkler, JD Scott and JJ Barsugli. (Jan 2000). A Linear Diagnosis of the Coupled Extratropical Ocean-Atmosphere System in the GFDL GCM. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS , 1(1). 10.1006/asle.2000.0002
  • Scott, JD and MA Alexander. (Dec 1999). Net shortwave fluxes over the ocean. JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY , 29(12). 10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<3167:NSFOTO>2.0.CO;2
  • Alexander MA; Scott JD. (Nov 1997). Surface flux variability over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Journal of Climate , 10(11), 2963-2978. 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2963:SFVOTN>2.0.CO;2
  • Scott J; Alexander M; Collins J; Smith C. (Sep 1997). Interactive visualization of climate data on the World Wide Web. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 78(9), 1985-1989. 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1985:IVOCDO>2.0.CO;2