Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder

Michael Jon Erickson

Research Interests

  • Ensemble model verification and post-processing
  • Tracking heavy precipitation objects and linking real-time objects to their retrospective biases
  • Verifying and displaying Weather Prediction Center operational forecast products
  • Applying hydrological model data for research-to-operations projects
  • Numerical modeling and data assimilation

Teaching Profile

Visiting Assistant Professor    University of Maryland          Synoptic Meteor.     Aug 2018 – Dec 2018

Adjunct Instructor                     Suffolk County Com. Coll.    Intro. to Weather     Aug 2012 - Aug 2015


Current Research

I am a CIRES employee working onsite at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in College Park, MD. My primary research topics utilize the Model Evaluation Tools software to improve WPC's verification and forecasting efforts related to heavy precipitation events. My projects broadly include verifying WPC forecast products (e.g. the Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion) and creating novel tools for WPC forecasters by post-processing ensemble model data. I am also involved with post-processing river streamflow data from hydrological models for usage by forecasters.

Currently I am developing techniques to display heavy precipitation displacement biases to forecasters and hydrologists. I am also tracking experimental heavy precipitation model data with extremely high temporal scales. Our goal is to simultaneously improve experimental model output and better understand model biases. New websites are being designed with dynamic mapping features to allow users to quickly analyze multiple layers of data.

View Publications

  • Schumacher RS; Hill AJ; Klein M; Nelson JA; Erickson MJ; Trojniak SM; Herman GR. (Sep 2021). From Random Forests to Flood Forecasts: A Research to Operations Success Story. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 102(9), E1742-E1755. 10.1175/bams-d-20-0186.1
  • Erickson MJ; Albright B; Nelson JA. (Feb 2021). Verifying and Redefining the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook Forecast Product. Weather and Forecasting , 36(1), 325-340. 10.1175/waf-d-20-0020.1
  • Erickson, M., Joshua S. Kastman, Benjamin Albright, Sarah Perfater, James A. Nelson, Russ S. Schumacher, and Gregory R. Herman. (Jan 2019). Verification Results from the 2017 HMT-WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment. 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0097.1
  • Erickson, MJ, BA Colle and JJ Charney. (May 2018). Evaluation and Postprocessing of Ensemble Fire Weather Predictions over the Northeast United States. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY , 57(5). 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0180.1
  • Erickson, MJ, JJ Charney and BA Colle. (Feb 2016). Development of a Fire Weather Index Using Meteorological Observations within the Northeast United States. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY , 55(2). 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0046.1
  • Erickson, MJ, BA Colle and JJ Charney. (Dec 2012). Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States. WEATHER AND FORECASTING , 27(6). 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00149.1