Cryospheric and Polar Processes Seminar

Butterflies and polar bears: understanding Arctic sea ice predictability
by Dr. Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
Interest in forecasts of Arctic sea ice has grown in recent years as a result of growing socio-economic activity in the region and impacts on the local population, and as a science-motivated effort to test our understanding and ability to predict ongoing changes in the Arctic. In this talk, we shall review the physical processes that give rise to Arctic sea-ice predictability and its season-and-scale dependency, and the tools that are used to quantify the limits of predictability. We shall also explore the skill and limitations of current forecasting systems and discuss future paths for progress in the field