MONDAY, Jan.11

2016 Presidential Forum ● Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future

9:00 am - 10:30 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, La Nouvelle Orleans Ballroom B-C

Opening Remarks from Alexander MacDonald, outgoing AMS President and emeritus visiting scholar, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories

Highlight from a CIRES partner

28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Session 1 ● Hot Topics in Climate

11:00 am-12:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, La Nouvelle Orleans Ballroom A

Chair: Kristen Averyt, CIRES Associate Director for Science

1.1 The Obama–Xi Accord: A Need for Further Action

1.2 The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions of 2015 in Historical Perspective

1.3 How Long Could the Current Hiatus in Global Warming Last?

1.4 Inevitable End-Of-Century Loss of Spring Snowpack over California's Sierra Nevada

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Quantifying Uncertainties in Measurements and Models and Resultant Climate Impacts I

Invited Presentation ● TJ2.2 ● Long Term Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases at NOAA—a Fifty-plus Year Record

11:15 am-11:30 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 356

James Butler, Director, Global Monitoring Laboratory, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories

Highlight from a CIRES partner

Solar Forecasting: Energy Application Part 1

1.1 ● Progress Toward Improved Solar Forecasts in Hourly Updated RAP and HRRR Forecasts

1:30 pm-1:45pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 346/347

Stan Benjamin, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

Stratospheric Chemistry

Invited Keynote Presentation ● J3.1 ● Four Decades of Ozone Layer Depletion: What We Did Right and What We Could Have Done Different?

1:30 pm-1:45pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 231/232

A. R. Ravishankara, Colorado State University and former Director, Chemical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories

Highlight from a CIRES partner

J3.3 ● The Future Ozone Layer Conundrum

2:00 pm-2:15 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 231/232

Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with NOAA colleagues)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Quantifying Uncertainties in Measurements and Models and Resultant Climate Impacts III

TJ9.2 ● Understanding the Global Methane Budget: The Present and Future View Using Top-Down Approaches

4:15 pm-4:30 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 356

Lori Bruhwiler, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories

Highlight from a CIRES partner

US CLIVAR Session on Ocean Fingerprints of Decadal-to-Centennial Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Change
2.3 ● Is ENSO Really Changing?
4:30 pm-4:45 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, La Nouvelle Orleans Ballroom A
Antonietta Capotondi, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES colleague)

MONDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS ● 2:30 pm-4:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center Hall D/E

Poster 133 ● Linkages Between Arctic Summer Circulation Regimes and Regional Sea Ice Anomalies: Drivers of Retreat?

Mark Serreze, CIRES National Snow and Ice Data Center Director

Poster 320 ● DSCOVR Science Archive Data and Access from NCEI

William Rowland, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (with colleagues from CIRES and NOAA’s NCEI)

TUESDAY, Jan. 12

Solar and Wind Forecasting: Energy Application

3.2 ● The Variability and Intermittency of Wind and Solar Power Can Be Overcome Without Storage By Using the National Energy With Weather System (NEWS) Simulator To Design A National US Electric Sector

8:45 am-9:00 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 346/347

Christopher Clack, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with NOAA colleagues)

3.4 ● Lidar Measurements of Wind Flow over Complex Terrain
9:15 am-9:30 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 346/347
Yelena Pichugina, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

Wind Forecasting: Energy Application Part 1

4.1 ●WFIP2–The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project: Overview

11:00 am-11:15 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 346/347

Melinda Marquis, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

4.2 ● WFIP2–The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project: Observing Systems and Case Studies

11:15 am-11:30 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 346/347

James Wilczak, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

4.4 ● WFIP2–The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project: Model Improvement Plans and Preliminary Results

11:45 am-12:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 346/347

Joseph Olson, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)
 

Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2015

Co-chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories

Session 1 ●Global Events in 2015

8:30 am-9:45 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 338/339

1.1 ● Global Weather and Climate Extremes of 2015

8:30 am-8:45 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 338/339

Klaus Wolter, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories

Session 2 ●Winter Season 2014-2015

11:00 am-12:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 338/339

Session 3 ●Major Floods and Fires of 2015

1:30 pm-3:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 338/339

Session 4 ● Major North American Impacts in 2015

3:30 pm-5:30 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 338/339
 

Helping Society Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change Part I

TJ13.6 ● Policy Implications for an Optimized Electric Power System Utilizing a National High-Voltage Direct-Current Transmission Network

2:45 pm-3:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 245

Paul Picciano, NOAA/Pomona College (with CIRES and other colleagues)

Highlight from a CIRES partner
 

Themed Joint Session 14 ● Helping Society Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change Part II

3:30 pm-5:30 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 245

Chair: Kristen Averyt, CIRES Associate Director for Science
 

Atmospheric Chemistry Lab, Field, and Modeling Studies (II)

J10.4 ● Comparison of Global Tropospheric Ozone Precursors from Measurements and the MACCity Global Emissions Inventory

4:15 pm-4:30 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 343

Birgit Hassler, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)
 

J10.6 ● Analysis of TES Ozone Observations to Understand Air Pollution Transport

4:45 pm-5:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 343

Ryan Kladar, NOAA (with CIRES colleague)
 

NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign Overview

7:00 pm-8:30 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 243

This session will provide an overview of the planned NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign this winter and prospects for collaboration and partnership. (CIRES scientists are involved with this mission.)

WEDNESDAY, Jan. 13

Preparing for GOES-R Series Including Instruments Overviews, Data Access/Flow, and User/Education Training

4.1 ● Status of the GOES-R Space Weather Sensors and Products

8:30 am-8:45 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 252/254

William Denig, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (with colleagues from CIRES and NOAA’s NCEI)
 

Regional climate modeling predicting future changes in extreme precipitation events - Towards More Resilient Engineering Design

J13.2 ● Examining terrain elevation assumptions used in current extreme precipitation estimation practices: A modeling study of the 2013 Colorado Front Range floods

8:45 am-9:00am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 242

Kelly Mahoney, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories

Highlight from a CIRES partner
 

Disseminating Earth Science and Climate Information for Better Decision Making

7.2 ● Experimental Hazard Services–Expanding the Concepts to Communicate Hazard Information

8:45 am-9:00am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 348/349

Tracy Lee Hansen, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES, CIRA and NOAA colleagues)

Highlight from a CIRES partner
 

Advances in Evaporation and Evaporative Demand, Part II

6.4 ● Estimating Reservoir Evaporation: Evaluating Current and Future Practices and Research-to-Operations Pathways

9:15 am-9:30am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 240/241

Ben Livneh, CIRES Fellow, University of Colorado Boulder

Outreach and Broader Impacts

7.5 ● The Evolution of NOAA's Science On a Sphere Ⓡ

9:30am-9:45 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 353

Elizabeth Russell, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

Impacts of Weather on the Nation's Aviation System
2.2 ● Improvements in Forecasting Regions of Aviation Hazard Impact from Advances in the HRRR and RAP Models
10:45 am-11:00 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 344
Stephen Weygandt, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES, CIRA and NOAA colleagues)

Quasi-Operational Products You Can Use Now
9.6 ● Aviation Weather Decision Support: INSITE
5:15 pm-5:30 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 348/349
Brian Etherton, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and CIRA colleagues)

THURSDAY, Jan. 14

Economic Impacts and Value of Improved Forecast Information

J6.4A ● A Labor Market Analysis of the Electricity Sector for 2030 Using the National Energy with Weather System Simulator

9:15 am-9:30am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 355

Christopher Clack, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with NOAA and other colleagues)

Regional Climate Variability and Change: Part 2

12C.4 ● Factors Contributing to Regional and Seasonal Trends in Temperature Extremes

11:45 am-12:00 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, La Nouvelle Orleans Ballroom A

Randall Dole, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories and CIRES Fellow (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

Weather, Water, Climate Testbeds to Enable and Accelerate Transitions of Research-to-Operations-to-the Public Use

8.3 ● The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed: A Research to Operations Collaboration

4:00 pm-4:15 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 338/339

Allen White, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES and NOAA colleagues)

The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) conducts research on high-impact precipitation and hydrologic events, fostering transition of scientific advances and new tools into forecasting operations to better balance water resource demands and flood mitigation strategies in a changing climate.

Communication Technologies for Accessing and Distributing Climate, Weather and Hydrological Data

13A.5 ● MADIS the Pathway to NWS Operations

4:30 pm-4:45 pm ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Room 348/349

Leon Benjamin, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories (with CIRES, CIRA, and NOAA colleagues)

NOAA’s  Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) extends the agency’s observational networks by collecting, integrating, quality controlling (QC), and distributing observations from NOAA and non-NOAA organizations. On January 21, 2015 NWS declared MADIS operational. This talk will focus on systems that are currently being integrated into MADIS.

THURSDAY MORNING POSTERS ● 9:45 am-11:00 am ● Ernest N. Morial Convention Center Hall D/E
Poster 501 ●The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Atlas
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES scientist in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratories,
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the polar stratosphere associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds in wintertime. These events can have substantial impacts on wintertime surface climate, such as extreme cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia, or warming over Greenland. Here we promote our progress towards a new atlas of historical SSW events and their impacts on the surface.