Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

CIRES Science @ #AMS2018

Highlighted presentations by CIRES scientists during the 2018 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society.

Click here for formatted document or scroll through presentations by day below.


1A.1 Hazard Services: Progress Report

Hazard Services is streamlining National Weather Service operations by integrating software tools into a common interface for issuing timely and accurate hazard information for hazardous weather such as hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes from local forecast offices and eventually for aviation weather, national precipitation forecasts, probabilistic convective events, and more. NOAA’s Tracy Lee Hansen, working with CIRES colleagues, provides an update on Hazard Services development work, which is nearing operational capability for Hydrology.

Tracy Lee Hansen, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 8:45 AM, Room 17A, Austin Convention Center

1.2 Global Model Test Bed: Fostering Community Involvement in NOAA’s Next-Generation Global Prediction System

The National Weather Service is sponsoring a Global Model Test Bed (GMTB) to create a software infrastructure and governance process for the transition of research to operations, specifically in the area of atmospheric physical parameterizations. CIRES and NOAA’s Ligia Bernardet describes GMTB’s Common Community Physics Package, an effort that allows community scientists to contribute innovations to be considered for operational implementation, thereby enhancing community engagement with operational modeling systems.

Ligia Bernardet, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 9:00 AM, Room 14, Austin Convention Center

1.2 Thinking Globally: Enhancing Learning with NOAA Earth System Data Visualization Tools—SOS, SOSx, NOAA View

NOAA’s Science On a Sphere (SOS) team provides innovative program offerings and technologies to meet the evolving needs of its educational partners. CIRES and NOAA’s Elizabeth Russell discusses how the team has improved user experiences with new visualizations, storytelling, and improved technologies. New tools, including SOS Explorer (a flat screen version of SOS) and NOAA View (a web-based data portal providing access to over 100 environmental models and satellite images in real time), have made SOS accessible to students and classroom educators outside of the museum setting.

Elizabeth Russell, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 9:00 AM, Ballroom C, Austin Convention Center

1.5 Five-Year Continental and Offshore Unified Wind and Solar Dataset from the Experimental HRRR Model: Preliminary Verification and Dataset Uses

CIRES and NOAA’s Eric James describes a 5-year dataset of wind speed and solar irradiance, covering the contiguous United States and offshore regions, based on short-range forecasts from the experimental HRRR model. He presents verification of the wind dataset vs METAR observations over the HRRR domain, several 80-m wind towers, and buoy data offshore and in the Great Lakes, and presents some preliminary verification of solar irradiance variables included in the HRRR forecasts against high-quality SURFRAD observations.

Eric James, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 9:45 AM, Room 15, Austin Convention Center

Session 2 The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part I

10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Room 15, Austin Convention Center • Cochair: Yelena Pichugina, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

2.1 The Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2): Overview and Preliminary Model Improvements

The goal of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2) is to increase understanding of atmospheric processes that affect wind power forecasts in complex terrain and improve wind power forecasts—eventually transferring those improvements into NWS operational forecasts. NOAA’s Melinda Marquis, working with CIRES colleagues, provides an overview of the field campaign in the Columbia River Gorge, an area of complex terrain with some 5 GW of installed wind capacity, conducted October 2015 through March 2017, and presents preliminary results—including changes in forecast skill for turbine-height wind speeds and direction under specific weather regimes and as a function of the diurnal cycle.

Melinda Marquis, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 10:30 AM

2.2 Improvements to Low-Level Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain from WFIP2

CIRES and NOAA’s Jaymes Kenyon discusses improvements to low-level wind forecasts in complex terrain, using measurements collected during the WFIP2 field campaign. He presents results from single-run case studies and extended retrospective test periods, using forecasts from the HRRR and 750-m nest models, as well as forecasts from “cold start” WRF–ARW configurations, and discusses the path to operational implementation of RAP/HRRR model improvements.

Jaymes Kenyon, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 10:45 AM

2.3 Observations of California’s Epic 2017 Water Year from Satellite and a 21st Century, Ground-based Observing Network

During the 2017 Water Year, California was battered by a number of winter storms that caused record precipitation in parts of the state. Some of these heavy precipitation events were the result of atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. NOAA’s Allen White, working with CIRES colleagues, discusses the impacts of these AR events using a network of instruments that are part of the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed and the California Department of Water Resources Enhanced Flood Response and Emergency Preparedness Program.

Allen White, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 11:00 AM, Ballroom D, Austin Convention Center


3.1 Global Weather and Climate Extremes of 2017 (Invited Presentation)

CIRES and NOAA’s Klaus Wolter provides an overview of noteworthy large-scale weather and climate events in 2017, including droughts, heat and cold waves, major tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, flooding rains, and snow storms. He also discusses possible influences of the highly unusual ENSO behavior of 2017 and anthropogenic climate change.

Klaus Wolter, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 2:00 PM, Ballroom D, Austin Convention Center

Session 3B Building Resilience to Weather and Climate Extremes Across Scales

2:00 PM-4:15 PM, Room 6B, Austin Convention Center

Chair: Lisa Dilling, CIRES and CU Boulder

3B.3 The Role of Place-Based, Sustained Networks for Resilient Drought Management

Water managers in the West and elsewhere have been coping with climate and water variability and now contemplate adaptation to extremes and climate change. Regional, place-based knowledge-action networks are foundational to moving science into practice in adapting to these extremes. CIRES Fellow Lisa Dilling discusses how networks and partnerships must anticipate the dynamic nature of the consequences of managing weather and climate extremes. To build resilience she suggests greater engagement on the tradeoffs involved in adaptation action and improving opportunities for ‘safe experimentation’ in resource management.

Lisa Dilling, CIRES and CU Boulder • 2:30 PM

3.1 Fostering Open Communication about Forecast Improvement (Invited Presentation)

Competing priorities for forecast lead time, geographic location and specific weather parameters result in divergent views on how to best improve weather forecasts. CIRES’ Betsy Weatherhead discusses how to foster open communication about forecast improvement in the context of finite resources, competing interests, and dispersed expertise, and makes the case that significantly improved weather forecasts to the end user are strong enough to bring people to the table to discuss solutions.

Betsy Weatherhead, CIRES • 2:00 PM, Room 19AB, Austin Convention Center

3A.5 No Safe Place: Forecaster Challenges and Public Vulnerability During a Series of Tornadic Storms in the Southeastern United States

Time is an important concept in weather hazard communications, whether lead time for warnings or partner deadlines for information. CIRES’ Jen Henderson highlights National Weather Service (NWS) communications and strategies developed for a few small Georgia communities devastated by a series of cool-season tornadoes in January 2017. Based on interviews with NWS forecasters and broadcast meteorologists, this presentation examines different notions of time (e.g., chronological and kairological) that come into play during strategies for communicating spatiotemporal information in a highly uncertain, multiple-day weather event.

Jen Henderson, CIRES and CU Boulder • 3:15 PM, Ballroom F, Austin Convention Center

3A.6 Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability (Invited Presentation)

Causes of U.S. temperature and precipitation trends cannot be understood independent of changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. CIRES and NOAA’s Judith Perlwitz summarizes current understanding of global circulation changes, including recurring modes of variability in atmospheric circulation (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific/North American Pattern) and the coupled atmosphere–ocean system (such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation). She also discusses the contribution of human influence on these changes.

Judith Perlwitz, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 3:30 PM, Salon F, Hilton


Location: Exhibit Hall 3, Austin Convention Center

12. A New Global Reference Evapotranspiration Reanalysis Forced by MERRA2: Opportunities for Famine Early Warning, Drought Attribution, and Improving Drought Monitoring

Michael Hobbins, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

31. Development of Prototype National Water Model Soil Moisture Products for Drought Monitoring

Mimi Hughes, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

263. Analysis of Waked Wind Flow in Complex Terrain from Doppler Lidar Measurements

Yelena Pichugina, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

199. GOES-R Space Weather Capabilities: Improved Measurements and New Products

Margaret Tilton, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

205. First Results from the Solar Ultraviolet Imager on GOES-16

Daniel Seaton, CIRES and CU Boulder


TJ1.2 Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRR-E) Toward an Operational Convective-Allowing Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast System

The future of weather models such as the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) will be to provide improved skill and uncertainty information for short-term forecast applications. CIRES and NOAA’s Therese Ladwig presents an overview of a prototype HRRR Ensemble (HRRRE) that ran experimentally in real time during 2017 and is being evaluated during the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment, and the Aviation Weather Center Summer Experiment.

Therese Ladwig, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 8:45 AM, Room 5ABC, Austin Convention Center

Panel Discussion 3: The New Weather Enterprise: Toward Better Public, Private, and Academic Collaborations

9:00 AM-10:00 AM • Room 1, Austin Convention Center • Moderator: Betsy Weatherhead, CIRES

Panelists: Antonio Busalacchi, UCAR; Conrad C. Lautenbacher, GeoOptics; and Melinda Marquis, NOAA Boulder

CIRES’ Betsy Weatherhead chairs a panel discussion on the importance of public, private, and academic collaborations in the weather enterprise to address new challenges as well as old challenges in new ways.

4.2 Observational Studies of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions along the North Slope of Alaska (Invited Presentation)

The impacts of natural and anthropogenic aerosol particles on cloud characteristics are especially important in high-latitude regions due to the stark contrast between polluted scenarios and the relatively clean background state. This contrast results in enhanced influence of aerosols over cloud properties and their ability to alter the transfer of energy through the atmosphere. CIRES and NOAA’s Gijs de Boer presents observational analyses on the interplay between aerosols and clouds in Northern Alaska, findings that could impact local climate states.

Gijs de Boer, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 10:45 AM, Room 12A, Austin Convention Center

J24.3 Potential Reemergence of Seasonal Soil Moisture Anomalies in North America

Soil moisture is an important predictor of regional climate variation and water resources. Most of the research on soil moisture and associated climate predictability has focused on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. Auburn University’s Sanjiv Kumar, working with CIRES and NOAA’s Matthew Newman, presents a new analysis that uses long-term in situ soil moisture observations and documents, for the first time, a soil moisture re-emergence process that can potentially contribute to inter-seasonal to interannual hydroclimate predictability.

Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn (with co-author Matthew Newman, CIRES and NOAA Boulder) • 11:00 AM, Room 18A, Austin Convention Center

5.6 National Water Model Forecast Evaluation of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events Over the Western United States

The new NOAA National Water Model (NWM) provides real-time distributed, high-resolution forecasts for the continental United States. CIRES and NOAA’s Francesca Viterbo presents the results of a study assessing NWM skills over key headwater regions in the western United States, focusing on the capability of the different model versions to predict extreme events. These results highlight the model’s skill in providing high-resolution forecast information in Western United States.

Francesca Viterbo, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 11:45 AM, Room 18B, Austin Convention Center


Session 6B. The ATom Mission—Part III

1:30 PM-3:30 PM • Room 9 C, Austin Convention Center

6B.3 Global-Scale Measurements of CCN-Sized Particles in the Remote Marine Boundary Layer: Results from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission

Clouds in the remote marine lower troposphere are important components of the climate system. NOAA’s Charles Brock, working with CIRES colleagues, presents results from airborne measurements of the small particles that affect cloud properties over the central Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. They find that cloud droplet “seeds” originate from air above the surface, rather than from sea-salt from the ocean.

Charles Brock, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 2:00 PM

6B.6 Black Carbon Vertical Distributions in Transported Biomass Burning Plumes

NOAA’s Joshua Schwarz, working with CIRES colleagues and the ATom science team, presents analyses of black carbon aerosols measured during the ATom mission, with a focus on addressing critical uncertainties in understanding black carbon’s atmospheric transport and removal.

Joshua Schwarz, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 2:45 PM

5.6 NCEI Sun to Earth: Space Weather Observations, Activities, and Services

The NOAA Solar Terrestrial Physics program is dedicated to the observation and characterization of the natural space environment from Sun to Earth, and NCEI’s environmental data sets from ground to orbital platforms are vast in both space and time. NOAA’s Rob Redmon, working with CIRES colleagues, presents a comprehensive summary of NCEI’s portfolio, focusing on the status of the GOES-R space weather instruments and data products and services (

Rob Redmon, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 2:45 PM, Salon J, Hilton

6A.7 The Recent Slowdown in the Decline of CFC-11: New Emissions, Stratospheric Loss Variability, or Both?

The global growth rate and interhemispheric gradient of CFC-11 have changed unexpectedly since 2013. CIRES and NOAA’s Eric Ray presents an analysis suggesting the possibility that CFC-11 emissions as well as interannual variability in the transport of stratospheric loss to the troposphere contribute to the recent changes. These results could have significant implications for estimating emissions of trace gases important for stratospheric ozone and climate from global atmospheric measurement data.

Eric Ray, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 3:15 PM, Room 18CD, Austin Convention Center

8.3 How Important Is the Stratospheric Pathway of ENSO for Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Climate Variability? (Invited Presentation)

Extreme perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex, or sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), entirely reverse the stratospheric circulation and can influence surface climate over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. CIRES and NOAA’s Amy Hawes Butler discusses the crucial role of the stratosphere in Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability and the influence of ENSO.

Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 3:30 PM, Salon F, Hilton


Location: Exhibit Hall 3, Austin Convention Center

648. Development of an Analysis/Forecast Verification Package as an OSSE Joint Verification Effort within OAR Focused on Improving the Assessment and Communication of the Impact of Observations on NWP Skill

Tanya Peevey, CIRES and NOAA Boulder


9B.6 The Global Climatic Response to Projected Transient Sea Ice Loss

NOAA’s Michael Alexander, working with CIRES’ Lantao Sun, presents the results of a study trying to isolate the global effects of projected Arctic sea ice decline. He’ll discuss the differences between the sets of model runs as well as other atmospheric circulation changes and the surface climate response.

Michael Alexander, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 9:45 AM, Salon F, Hilton

Session 7 Regional Air Quality Observations and Modeling—Part I

8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Room 18CD, Austin Convention Center

Cochair: Stuart McKeen, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

7.1 Modeling of Meteorology, Chemistry, and Aerosol for the 2017 Utah Winter Fine Particle Study

The Utah Winter Fine Particle Study field project, which took place in early 2017 within the populated region of the Great Salt Lake, focused on understanding the meteorology and chemistry associated with high particulate matter levels often observed near Salt Lake City during stable wintertime conditions. CIRES and NOAA’s Stuart McKeen presents results from the field campaign and discusses the photochemical and aerosol processes leading to these high pollution events using a detailed air quality forecast model.

Stuart McKeen, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 8:30 AM

7.2 Real-Time Wildfire Smoke Prediction in the United States: The HRRR-Smoke Model

CIRES and NOAA’s Eric James discusses real-time wildfire smoke prediction, summarizing recent developments to the prototype HRRR-smoke (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh for smoke) modeling system. The HRRR-smoke is initialized four times per day to forecast smoke concentrations for the next 36 hours and represents an initial step towards incorporating aerosol feedbacks onto meteorology within operational numerical weather prediction.

Eric James, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 8:45 AM

Joint Session 38. Artificial Intelligence and High Performance Computing for Weather Predictions

8:30 AM-10:00 AM • Room 12B, Austin Convention Center

J38.3 Using Deep Learning for Targeted Data Selection: Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization

Today, only a fraction of satellite observations are ultimately used for model assimilation. CIRES and NOAA’s Yu-Ju Lee investigates the use of deep learning to better incorporate satellite data into forecast models and describes a system to intelligently extract those observations to improve weather forecasting. He also discusses how high performance computing could benefit from this research.

Yu-Ju Lee, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 9:00 AM

J38.4 Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization with Machine Learning: An Introduction and Tackling the “Labeled Dataset” Challenge for Cyclones around the World

Geostationary satellite data are increasing in size and frequency, which makes incorporating all of these data into real-time applications difficult. CIRES and NOAA’s Christina Bonfanti discusses various machine-learning methods aimed at more cost-effective satellite data selection—to take advantage of more of this underused information. By better utilizing satellite data, scientists can provide more timely and reliable weather forecasts to support important decisions about safety, emergencies, and planning for day-to-day activities.

Christina Bonfanti, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 9:15 AM

7.3 Using SMAP Satellite Observations to Estimate Terrestrial Evaporation Rates

Prediction of evapotranspiration remains a critical need for understanding global water and energy cycles. CIRES Fellow Ben Livneh discusses efforts to produce a continental-scale estimate of soil evaporation based primarily on soil drying rates from the NASA SMAP satellite mission, addressing the practical and logistical challenges of evapotranspiration measurement over large scales and adding to a very sparse pool of large-scale observational estimates.

Ben Livneh, CIRES and CU Boulder • 9:00 AM, Room 18B, Austin Convention Center

9.4 Assimilation of VIIRS AOD to Improve Smoke Forecasts over the Western United States

CIRES and NOAA’s Mariusz Pagowski examines the impact of assimilating VIIRS satellite retrievals on forecasts of smoke over the western United States during the 2016 and 2017 fire seasons. This work will help improve the prediction of air quality to mitigate the health effects of pollution on human populations.

Mariusz Pagowski, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 9:15 AM, Salon G, Hilton


The 2017-2027 National Academies’ Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space: An Overview of the Report

12:15 PM-1:15 PM • Ballroom G, Austin Convention Center

Organizer: Arthur Charo, National Research Council, Washington, DC

Panelists: Bill Gail, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO and Waleed Abdalati, CIRES Director and CU Boulder

CIRES Director Waleed Abdalati, co-chair of the 2017-2027 National Academies’ Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space (“Decadal Survey 2017”), presents an overview of the report, which sets priorities for the nation’s science agencies for the next decade. The survey, released publicly January 5, 2018, developed consensus recommendations from the environmental monitoring and Earth science and applications communities for an integrated and sustainable approach to the conduct of the U.S. government’s civilian space-based Earth-system science programs. A PDF of the report is posted at

8.5 Getting Students to Apply the Governing Equations with Real-World Data: Estimating Heat Fluxes Using Weather Station and Drone Data

CIRES Fellow John Cassano discusses how he uses hands-on teaching methods to help introductory undergraduate and graduate students at CU Boulder better understand complex atmospheric governing equations (based on the principles of mass, momentum, and energy). By using real-world data (real-time weather observations from a campus weather station and temperature drone data from Cassano’s Antarctic field research) in their learning, students gain a deeper understanding of what these equations represent and how they can be used to quantify atmospheric behavior.

John Cassano, CIRES and CU Boulder • 2:45 PM, Ballroom C, Austin Convention Center

TJ8.6 Dynamics of Vulnerability in Drought Contexts: A Case Study of Pueblo, Colorado, and the Arkansas River

CIRES Visiting Fellow Jen Henderson examined drought vulnerability and resilience in Pueblo, Colorado through a series of semi-structured interviews across the Arkansas River, investigating the long-term impacts of drought on communities and exploring their efforts to recover and create sustainable drought recovery plans. She discusses this case study, and how the drought recovery plans can sometimes have surprising, unintended consequences (both positive and negative) for neighboring regions.

Jen Henderson, CIRES and CU Boulder • 3:00 PM, Ballroom F, Austin Convention Center


Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin Convention Center and Hilton)

1113. Increased Propane Emissions from the United States over the Last Decade

Lei Hu, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

1126. ATom Observations of New Particle Formation in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: The Role of Convection and Nucleation Mechanisms

Agnieszka Kupc, CIRES and NOAA Boulder

1141. Separating Methane Emissions from Agricultural Sources and Natural Gas: Direct Measurements of Excess Columns of CH4, C2H6, and NH3 in the Colorado Front Range

Natalie Kille, CIRES and CU Boulder

988. Drivers of 2016 Record Arctic Warmth Assessed Using Climate Simulations Subjected to Factual and Counterfactual Forcing

Judith Perlwitz, CIRES and NOAA Boulder


Times and locations as indicated below

Session 11 Greenhouse Gases—Part I

10:30 AM-12:00 PM • Room 18CD, Austin Convention Center

11.1 Detecting Changes in Arctic Carbon Fluxes

NOAA’s Lori Bruhwiler discusses the current understanding of the carbon budget in the rapidly warming Arctic, including feedbacks between climate and carbon and whether or not trends in carbon emissions are detectable with current observational strategies. Bruhwiler, working with CIRES colleagues, uses top-down and bottom-up approaches to illustrate anthropogenic emission measurements—which are critical in policy making and meeting global climate goals. 

Lori Bruhwiler, NOAA Boulder (CIRES partner) • 10:30 AM

11.4 Constraints on Southern Ocean CO2 Fluxes and Seasonality from Atmospheric Vertical Gradients Observed on Multiple Airborne Campaigns

CIRES and NOAA’s Kathyrn McKain presents an analysis to constrain the magnitude and seasonal cycle of net carbon dioxide exchange with the Southern Ocean, using observations made during three aircraft campaigns deployed by NASA’s Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). She highlights the utility of these aircraft profile measurements, which are far more effective than previous, sparse ocean and atmospheric collection methods.

Kathryn McKain, CIRES and NOAA Boulder • 11:30 AM

11.3 Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE)

NOAA’s Curtis Alexander, working with CIRES colleagues, presents the prototype HRRR Ensemble (HRRRE), which is under development and ran experimentally earlier this year. HRRRE builds upon the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh), an hourly-updated forecast model that aids in the production of severe weather outlooks and watches, prediction of aviation hazards, and provide guidance for renewable energy applications. Alexander will highlight the HRRRE system design, including the data assimilation techniques, ensemble perturbations, and forecasts.

Curtis Alexander, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 11:00 AM, Room 14, Austin Convention Center


J55.2 An Overview of the Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport-Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS)

NOAA’s Andrew Langford presents results from the Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport-Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS). Working with CIRES colleagues, Langford studied the impact of transport from outside sources, including wildfires, Asian pollution, and stratospheric intrusions, on surface ozone in Clark County, Nevada during late spring and early summer, 2017. The 45-day field campaign produced more than 500 hours of valuable data.

Andrew Langford, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 1:45 PM, 412, Hilton

12.3 Remote and Autonomous Measurements of Precipitation in Antarctica

The small amount of annual precipitation, subtleties between blowing versus falling snow, extreme cold, and limited power make data collection in Antarctica difficult. CIRES’ Mark Seefeldt and his team are tackling the challenge of measuring precipitation there. During the 2017-18 field season, the team installed four low-power, autonomous Antarctic Precipitation Systems on the Ross Ice Shelf. The systems have a collection of instruments, including a precipitation gauge with a windshield to better capture snow. Seefeldt discusses the precipitation measurement systems, results of the field season, and goals for the project.

Mark Seefeldt, CIRES and CU Boulder • 2:00 PM, Room 13AB, Austin Convention Center

13B.5 Research to Operations Update: The Rapid-Refresh (RAP) Version 4, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Version 3, and Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction

NOAA’s Curtis Alexander, working with CIRES colleagues, presents both the planned operational upgrades to Rapid Refresh (RAP) version 4 and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) version 3 in February 2018, and progress in development of HRRR-like convection-allowing ensemble analysis, forecast and post-processing. The updated versions will provide better data assimilation and thus better deterministic HRRR forecasts and HRRR ensemble (HRRRE) prediction. An ensemble post-processing system is applied to produce all-season weather hazard probabilities using either time-lagged HRRR or the HRRRE as input.

Curtis Alexander, NOAA Boulder (with CIRES co-authors) • 2:30 PM, 404, Hilton

CIRES is a partnership of NOAA and CU Boulder.

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