Highlights of CIRES Science at AMS 2019
Every year, several dozen CIRES scientists and colleagues present important work during the AMS Annual Meeting. This year's highlights follow, organized by day. These highlights do not necessarily reflect the importance of the science; rather, they reflect talks, posters and discussions likely to be of interest to a broad scientific audience.
Click for daily highlights:
Monday, 7 January
MONDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
1.5: Lidar and Aircraft Profiling of Ozone above the Central San Joaquin Valley during the California Baseline Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS)
In the spring and summer of 2016, the California Baseline Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS) investigated the influence of long-range transport and stratospheric intrusions on surface ozone (O3) concentrations in California—with emphasis on the San Joaquin Valley, one of two extreme ozone nonattainment areas in the United States. NOAA’s Andy Langford will summarize ozone measurements taken by mobile lidar and compare those to surface measurements and to airborne measurements from research aircraft. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Andrew Langford, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
09:30 AM - 09:45 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - West 211A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353993
2B.3: Comparing Operational NLDAS-2 and Experimental NLDAS-3 Soil Moisture with Observational Soil Moisture Data from In-Situ Networks and SMAP Remote Sensing
Soil moisture is a key variable of the terrestrial water cycle, important for water resources management, agricultural productivity, drought monitoring, and numerical weather and seasonal climate prediction. Modeled soil moisture has not been comprehensively evaluated due to the scarcity and representativeness of existing observations. CIRES’ Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig will compare model outputs from the new North American Land Data Assimilation System version 3 (NLDAS-3) and NLDAS-2 soil moisture to both in situ and remotely sensed observations, to highlight key discrepancies and agreements between model outputs and observations.
Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig, CIRES and CU Boulder
11:00 AM - 11:15 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 126BC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/350850
2A.3: Characterizing Tropospheric Trace Gas Retrievals from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder
An instrument onboard the NOAA/NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite has made global daily observations of temperature, moisture, and trace gases since 2011, and another on the NOAA/NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) spacecraft will continue this tropospheric measurement record for the next two decades. CIRES’ Stuart McKeen will compare measurements from this and another instrument of carbon monoxide, methane, ozone, and other trace gases in the troposphere to aircraft field measurements. These results will help improve atmospheric chemical-transport models.
Stuart McKeen, CIRES and NOAA
11:00 AM - 11:15 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 124A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/350689
2.6: 20th Century Reanalysis version "3" (1836-2014) and Prospects for 200 years of Reanalysis
CIRES’s Gil Compo presents a new historical reanalysis dataset, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning 1836 to present. 20CRv3 has several improvements compared to the previous version 2c and provides an observational validation dataset, with quantified uncertainties, for assessments of climate model simulations of the 19th to 21st centuries, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather.
Gilbert Compo, CIRES and NOAA
11:45 AM - 12:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 131AB
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354481
MONDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
TJ1.2: The Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Final Warmings and Their Surface Impacts
The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex ends each spring when the climatological westerly winds turn easterly, either because the stratospheric temperature gradient radiatively relaxes as sunlight returns to the pole or because the vortex has been dynamically disrupted and never recovers. CIRES’ Amy Butler will compare the predictability of early warmings (which are largely dynamically driven) and late warmings (which are largely radiatively driven) and find that late warmings are predictable at longer lead times.
Amy Butler, CIRES and NOAA
02:15 PM - 02:30 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 128AB
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352949
TJ1.4: Attribution of NAO Predictability beyond Two Weeks
There is increasing evidence that the knowledge of extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions can enhance predictive skill of tropospheric circulation related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In this presentation, CIRES’ Lantao Sun examines factors contributing to the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation for the one-month period from weeks 3 to 6. Sun finds that following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (both strong and weak), the North Atlantic Oscillation predictive skill is generally higher compared to stratospheric neutral vortex states.
Lantao Sun, CIRES and NOAA
02:45 PM - 03:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 128AB
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352703
3.3: Dynamics of Extreme Precipitation Events in Northern California during Winter 2016–2017
This study examines factors contributing to high-impact extreme precipitation events that culminated in record seasonal precipitation totals in northern California during the winter of 2016–2017. Of those events, the two largest accounted for approximately 38 percent of the total seasonal precipitation volume over northern California. In this presentation, NOAA’s Benjamin Moore focuses on these two events, to investigate the degree to which the large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific associated with them represents a principal pathway for extreme precipitation events in northern California. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Benjamin Moore, NOAA partner
02:30 PM - 02:45 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 221AB
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354757
3A.4A: Predictability of U.S. Northern Great Plains Summertime Precipitation Extremes
Summertime precipitation extremes over the Northern Great Plains (Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota) have produced four ‘Billion Dollar Disasters’ since 1988. Near-record low precipitation in 1988 and 2017 resulted in wildfires, livestock selloffs and agricultural losses. Near-record high precipitation in 1993 and 2011 resulted in exceptional flooding of the Missouri and Souris Rivers that destroyed property and killed five people. In this presentation, NOAA’s Andrew Hoell examines the predictability of Northern Great Plains summertime precipitation from 1982-2017, key to establishing the limits of disaster early warning there. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Andrew Hoell, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
2:45 PM - 3:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 127ABC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353923
3.3: R2O Plans from the Rapid-Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) to the Unified Rapid Refresh Forecast System
The 3-km convection-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is an hourly updating weather forecast model. There is a two-year research-to-operations (R2O) transition cycle for the parent Rapid Refresh (RAP) and HRRR models since they became operational in 2012 and 2014. NOAA’s Curtis Alexander will review the 2018 changes to both models; preview changes planned for 2020, including storm-scale ensemble data assimilation with use of new satellite and radar observations, wildfire-driven smoke forecasts, and more advanced physics; and describe the eventual incorporation into a Unified Rapid Refresh Forecast System by 2022. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Curtis Alexander, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
03:00 PM - 03:15 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 232C
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353489
Panel Discussion 1: Telling Lives in Meteorology: A Dialogue between Readers and Writers
In this panel discussion on science biography, readers will have an opportunity to talk with biographers and creators of other projects that explore the lives of historical atmospheric scientists—through established biographical genres as well as less familiar formats, including creative non-fiction, life history oral interviews, digital collections of personal papers, and prosopography (collective biography). Panelist and CIRES scientist Jennifer Henderson will briefly introduce her project and then participate in a conversation with the audience.
03:00 PM - 04:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 222C
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Session/46993
4.6: Better Solar and Wind Forecasts from 2019−20 HRRR/RAP from Improved Clouds
Even with the July 2018 implementation of the new HRRRv3/RAPv4 weather models at NCEP, a newer version is already over 60 percent ready. This new version has major improvements in model physics and data assimilation that are significant for solar and wind forecasting. NOAA scientist and CIRES Fellow Stan Benjamin will describe the HRRRv4 and RAPv5 improvements for renewable energy and progress towards the implementation planned for February 2020. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Stan Benjamin, CIRES Fellow, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
03:15 PM - 03:30 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 129A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352935
3.4: Five Decades of Doppler Wind Lidar Measurements from Turbulence to Global Scales (Invited Presentation)
Doppler lidar techniques enable remote measurement of wind properties where other remote sensing techniques such as radar or passive radiometry are not effective. Instrument technology and capabilities have continuously improved since the early 1970s, opening up new applications in atmospheric research, including boundary layer evolution and structure, flows in complex terrain, land/sea breeze characteristics, clear-air turbulence, urban meteorology, and even wind measurements on a global scale through deployment of a Doppler lidar on a space-based platform. CIRES’ Michael Hardesty will give an invited presentation on 50 years of Doppler wind lidar measurements, from turbulence to global scales.
R. Michael Hardesty, CIRES and NOAA
03:30 PM - 04:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - West 211A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/355444
MONDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS
4:00PM-6:00PM · Phoenix Convention Center - Hall 4
4: The Extreme Precipitation Forecast Improvement Project: Helping Forecasters and the Public Improve Their Situational Awareness When Extreme Rainfall Is a Threat
The Extreme Precipitation Forecast Improvement Project was established to help forecasters improve their situational awareness for extreme precipitation events. A multidisciplinary team from Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and the Weather Prediction Center developed and implemented situational awareness tools for forecasters at the National Weather Service, as well as a simplified, web-based product for public use. In this poster, CIRES’ Diana Stovern presents some of these latest enhancements and user accounts of how they have been used in an operational setting to improve situational awareness during impactful rain events.
Diana Stovern, CIRES and NOAA NWS
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354578
27: Characteristics of National Water Model and North American Land Data Assimilation System Soil Moisture Climatological Distributions in the Mediterranean Climate of the California Russian River Basin
NOAA’s new National Water Model (NWM) provides information that might inform drought monitoring and forecasting at fine time and space scales. Agricultural drought monitoring relies on accurate soil moisture values, but identifying drought conditions using soil moisture data provides unique challenges in Mediterranean climates, where most of the annual rainfall happens in winter and the summer season is typically dry. In this poster, CIRES' Darren Jackson reports on a study of the California Russian River basin that evaluates the challenge of using soil moisture climatologies to determine extremely dry soil moisture conditions in the NWM model and observations.
Darren Jackson, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354646
90: Navigating Our Understanding of Future Greenland Ice Sheet Precipitation with CESM Simulations and CloudSat Observations
The Greenland Ice Sheet represents a complex feedback system that affects sea-level rise in a warming climate. While recent work has focused on how ice sheets will melt in a warming climate in response to changes in clouds, this research focuses on precipitation, the largest positive contributor to ice sheet mass balance: For example, snowfall becoming lighter or transitioning to rainfall could accelerate future ice mass loss. In this poster, CIRES’ Michael Camron describes efforts to characterize rain and snow over the GIS, to improve present model understanding while highlighting considerations for future remote sensing products and development.
Michael Camron, CIRES and CU Boulder
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/351510
Tuesday, 8 January
TUESDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
4.1: Global Weather and Climate Extremes of 2018 (Invited Presentation)
In this invited presentation, CIRES’ Klaus Wolter will give an overview of noteworthy large-scale weather and climate events in 2018, including droughts, heat- and cold-waves, major tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, flooding rains, and snow storms. He will discuss if and how these events are related to the varying ENSO conditions of 2018 and to anthropogenic climate change.
Klaus Wolter, CIRES and CU Boulder
08:30 AM - 09:00 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North Ballroom 120CD
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/356003
1.1: Deployment of Low-Cost Instrument Networks to Observe Local Meteorological Variability in Undergraduate and Graduate Classes
Graduate and undergraduate field methods classes at the University of Colorado and the University Centre in Svalbard are using networks of relatively low cost instruments—some deployed at fixed sites and others on mobile platforms including small drones, snowmobiles, cars, and bicycles—to observe variability in local temperature, humidity, and winds. The overarching goal of these classes is to provide students with hands-on experience performing observational field campaigns. In this presentation, CIRES’ John Cassano will give examples of student-designed observational networks, the atmospheric features that were observed, and lessons learned in teaching these field methods classes.
John Cassano, CIRES and CU Boulder
08:30 AM - 08:45 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - West 211B
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/349658
4B.3: Rapidly-Updating High-Resolution Predictions of Smoke, Visibility, and Smoke-Weather Interactions Using Satellite Fire Products within the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Coupled with Smoke (RAP/HRRR-smoke)
After a devastating year for wildfires in the western United States, CIRES’ Eric James discusses results from an experimental smoke forecasting system developed with NOAA and its National Weather Service. Leveraging the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather forecast models running operationally already, researchers inputted real-time fire data from several satellites to generate smoke forecasts every six hours. Those forecasts were evaluated using ground- and satellite-based measurements, and the results demonstrated improvements in both smoke forecasts and weather forecasts, when fire data are considered.
Eric James, CIRES and NOAA
09:00 AM - 09:15 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 132ABC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353068
4B.4: Online Inclusion of Chemical Component into NOAA’s Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)
FV3 is the Next Generation Global Prediction System of NOAA’s National Weather Service. In this presentation, CIRES’ Li Zhang describes FV3GFS-GSDChem, a chemical model used in the NOAA Global Systems Laboratory to provide real-time aerosol forecasts and that may replace the currently operational Global Forecast System/NGAC system at NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center. The model was able to forecast wildfire pollution in August 2018 over the western United States, high sea salt concentrations associated with tropical and subtropical cyclones, and pollution events over Beijing this winter. Zhang also evaluates FV3GFS-GSDChem performance using Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom-1) aircraft measurements.
Li Zhang, CIRES and NOAA
09:15 AM - 09:30 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 132ABC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354029
TJ4.2: Trends in Atmospheric Abundance and Inferred Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances (Invited Presentation)
Ozone-depleting substances, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and their replacements, are regulated under the Montreal Protocol, resulting in a decline in total atmospheric chlorine and bromine since the mid-1990s. Periodic assessments, the most recent of which was in 2018, summarize recent scientific findings and provide an update on the effectiveness of the agreement. In this invited presentation, NOAA’s Brad Hall will discuss recent trends in atmospheric abundances and inferred emissions of ozone-depleting substances, including the recent surprising finding that emissions of CFC-11 are not declining as fast as anticipated and have actually increased since 2013. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Brad Hall, NOAA partner
09:00 AM - 09:15 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - West 212A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352316
4A.3: Deep Learning Methods for Cyclogenesis, Extratropical, and Tropical Cyclone Regions of Interest (ROI) from Satellite Observations
CIRES' Christina Bonfanti presents efforts to identify regions of interest for cyclones by harnessing the power of machine learning to quickly sift through large amounts of satellite data. Her team built a machine tool that reads satellite data and identifies hurricanes and other cyclones. The machine needed to be trained, so the group first built a program that used a set of rules to find cyclones from weather models. Then, the machine used these "answers" to teach itself how to detect cyclones and once taught, could locate the satellite of regions of interest very quickly.
Christina Bonfanti, CIRES and NOAA
09:00 AM - 09:15 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 124B
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352191
4B.2: Hazard Services: Progress Report for 2018
One goal of the Hazard Services program is to streamline National Weather Service (NWS) operations by integrating disconnected software tools into a common interface, so timely and informative watch, warning, and advisory products can be issued for all hazards. The Hazard Services development team facilitates the transfer of existing product generation workflows into this interface, along with executing a scientific vision for the future of decision support services. CIRES’ Darrel Kingfield will summarize the Hazard Services team’s accomplishments over the previous year.
Darrel Kingfield, CIRES and NOAA
10:45 AM - 11:00 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 132ABC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353658
TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
TJ10.2: The Need for HPC for Deep Learning with Real-Time Satellite Observations
The increasingly enormous volume of Earth system data collected by new NOAA and other satellites creates a processing challenge: How can we quickly extract high value data or identify regions of interest—such as the development of cyclones or convection? Researchers are using a Convolution Neural Network approach to identify cyclones, cyclogenesis and convection initiation, and early work with soil moisture data. In this presentation, CIRA and NOAA’s Jebb Stewart will discuss successes, trade-offs, challenges and future applications of machine learning for extracting value from satellite data.
Jebb Stewart, CIRA and NOAA, with CIRES co-authors
02:00 PM - 02:15 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 124B
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/350468
TJ11.4: The Impact of GOES-16 GLM Lightning Observations on the RAP/HRRR Assimilation and Forecasts
The GOES-16 satellite, launched in 2016 and fully operational in 2017, is equipped with a Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)—the first operational lightning mapper in geostationary orbit. GLM provides total lightning data for the Americas every 20 seconds with a horizontal spatial resolution of about 10 km, and these observations have great potential to improve short-term storm forecasts. In this presentation, CIRES’ Guoqing Ge examines the impact of GLM data on data assimilation and forecasts with NOAA’s Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather forecast models.
Guoqing Ge, CIRES and NOAA
02:15 PM - 02:30 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 231AB
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/350287
7.4: The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Commercial Aircraft Weather Observations Available for Assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Weather observations from commercial aircraft constitute a critical component of the global observing system and are the most valuable source of observations for frequently updated numerical weather prediction systems over North America. However, the distribution of aircraft observations is highly irregular in space and time. In this presentation, CIRES’ Eric James describes the distribution of commercial aircraft weather observations and how that has changed over time. He will also discuss how regional carrier networks and new reporting protocols could help to expand coverage of aircraft observations and improve short-term weather prediction.
Eric James, CIRES and NOAA
03:45 PM - 04:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 224B
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353062
TUESDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS
4:00PM-6:00PM · Phoenix Convention Center - Hall 4
539: Trends in Lower Stratospheric Ozone from 1998–Present Based on Balloon-Borne In Situ Measurements
A recent study of lower stratospheric ozone measured by satellite-based sensors reported downward trends in the tropics and middle latitudes since 1998. In this poster, CIRES’ Sean Davis finds statistically significant post-1998 trends in lower stratospheric ozone deduced from balloon-borne, in situ measurements of ozone at three sounding sites: Boulder, Colorado; Hilo, Hawaii; and Lauder, New Zealand. Davis discusses factors that may contribute to the decreasing trends, such as changes in the tropopause height.
Sean Davis, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353166
683: Machine Learning for Data Preparation: Improving Soil Moisture Field
The volume of available satellite data presents a challenge for selecting meaningful information that improves forecasting models. Machine learning approaches can detect patterns in very large data sets. CIRES’ Lidia Trailovic describes a project to improve a soil moisture product based on High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and Mesonet truth data, and combine it with data from the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16. The goal is to produce a more accurate, higher spatial resolution soil moisture product by developing and implementing machine learning algorithms. Ultimately, the new field will be used in the RAP and HRRR weather forecast models.
Lidia Trailovic, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354280
753: RAP for YOPP: The NOAA Rapid Refresh Model and Its Contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction
In this poster, NOAA’s Dave Turner will present an overview of the NOAA Rapid Refresh numerical weather prediction model, focusing on the model’s ability to accurately simulate the atmosphere, clouds, and radiation in the Arctic for different forecast lengths. The unique cloud and radiation observations at the DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites at both Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) and Oliktok will be compared against RAP forecasts, providing a baseline characterization of the model’s ability to simulate the Arctic atmosphere. Both the analyses and forecasts fields will be made available to the Year of Polar Prediction participants. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
David Turner, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353374
Wednesday, 9 January
WEDNESDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
TJ16.1: Using Stakeholder Engagement and Social Science to Generate Useful Information and Accelerate Research to Operations for Water Management, Drought Monitoring, and Wildlife Management
In this presentation, CIRES’ Heather Yocum discusses how stakeholder engagement informed the design of four products at the research, development, and R2O/R2A stages: the Water Resources Monitor and Outlook (WRMO); the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI); a report providing spatial snow information; and a climate and weather data set targeted to wildlife managers. The researchers found that frequent communication and engagement between users and producers of information helped build trust and identify measures for success. They also emphasize the importance of social science research in facilitating meaningful engagement.
Heather Yocum, CIRES and NOAA
08:30 AM - 08:45 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 226C
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/355106
7.2: Improved Understanding and Modeling of Key Atmospheric Phenomena during WFIP2: Cold Pools, Gap Flows, and Mountain Waves
The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) was conducted in the Columbia River Basin. Wind flows in the basin are channeled, piled up in natural reservoirs, or forced up over topography or more stable air below, resulting in cold pools, gap flows, mountain waves, mountain wakes, and other types of terrain-influenced circulations that present unique challenges to short-term forecasting for wind energy in the region. NOAA’s Jim Wilczak discusses observations and model results from WFIP2, including how a better understanding of these atmospheric phenomena has improved weather models and wind forecasts. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
James Wilczak, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
08:45 AM - 09:00 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 129A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354155
7.4: Ramp Skill of Reforecast Runs from HRRR and HRRRNEST Models during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Part II
The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP-2) set out to improve the forecast skill of weather models in complex terrain. One challenge for wind power production is accurately forecasting wind ramp events—large changes of generated power over short periods of time—to keep power production costs down. Researchers developed a Ramp Tool and Metric to measure weather models’ skill at forecasting these ramp events. In this presentation, CIRES’ Irina Djalalova analyzes the seasonal and daily distribution of ramp events during WFIP-2, as well as model forecasting skill.
09:15 AM - 09:30 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 129A
Irina Djalalova, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354644
8B.4: Broadcast Meteorologist Decision Making in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Project
Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) delivers user-specific, probabilistic hazard information to improve decisions made about National Weather Service watches and warnings. Because broadcast meteorologists serve a critical and complex role in communicating those weather warnings, they have been part of the Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information project since 2016. CIRES’ Holly Obermeier will discuss how broadcast meteorologists interpreted, used, and communicated probabilistic information during the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed.
09:15 AM - 09:30 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 232C
Holly Obermeier, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352893
1.6: Developing and Exploiting a New Global Reanalysis of Evaporative Demand for Global Food-Security Assessments and Drought Monitoring.
In drought monitoring, the supply of moisture to the surface is well represented by precipitation. In this presentation, CIRES’ Mike Hobbins discusses the demand side of drought—evaporative demand or the "thirst of the atmosphere." Accurate evaporative demand estimates are important for drought analyses and food security assessments. Working in partnership with the Famine Early Warning System Network and others, researchers developed a new drought index, the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). EDDI is gaining traction as an input to agricultural assessments and to provide early warning and ongoing monitoring of agricultural and hydrological drought.
09:45 AM - 10:00 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 222C
Mike Hobbins, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354653
8.2: Observations of Wind Turbine Wake and Wind Plant Wake in the Columbia River Gorge Using a Scanning Doppler Lidar
From October 2015 to March 2017, researchers deployed instruments in the Columbia River Gorge as part of the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP-2) field campaign. Part of the instrumentation included two scanning Doppler lidars, which measured two types of wakes as part of their regular measurement strategy at a wind farm near Arlington, Oregon: smaller scale wakes from individual wind turbines and larger scale wakes from the whole wind plant. In this presentation, CIRES’ Aditya Choukulkar discusses these measurements and whether wind plant wake and individual wind turbine wake can be measured using a Doppler lidar.
10:45 AM - 11:00 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 129A
Aditya Choukulkar, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354450
6.6: Complex Systems and Integrated Approaches: Learning from Ecosystem and Water Resources Science and Management to Inform Planning in the Coastal Zone
The growing complexity of rapid environmental changes, cross-jurisdictional natural resource users, and management authorities has placed a greater importance on integrating science and management at landscape or ecosystem scales. In this presentation, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory director Robert Webb will describe strategies and future challenges for managing system sustainability and reducing vulnerability to rapid change. Using examples from the management of watershed, coastal, and ocean systems as independent and interconnected systems, he will show how these strategies can inform integrated planning and management of coastal resources and ecosystems. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Robert Webb, NOAA partner
11:45 AM - 12:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 130
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354972
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS
Town Hall: The AMS Hydrology Committee, the Past, Present and Future
The AMS Committee on Hydrology promotes events and activities that support the integration of hydrological and meteorological sciences. In this Town Hall, current and past committee members, including CIRES’ Mike Hobbins, will address topics including defining priority science/research themes for the conference; community involvement in meeting planning; maintaining balance in Committee membership across work sectors, students, genders, minorities and other underrepresented groups; and future directions of the Committee over the next 10 years.
12:15 PM - 01:15 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 127ABC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Session/49768
11.4: A New Approach to Snow Climatology with the Winter Storm Severity Index
The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), which has been running at Weather Prediction Center since 2017, is a graphical depiction of anticipated winter weather severity consisting of six components: snow amount, snow load, blowing snow, ground blizzard, snow load and ice accumulation. CIRES’ Joshua Kastman will discuss how the WSSI was developed to help NWS operational forecasters maintain situational awareness of the possible significance of weather-related impacts of the current forecast, as well improve communication to external partners, media, and the general public of the potential societal impacts of winter weather.
Joshua Kastman, CIRES and NOAA NWS
03:45 PM - 04:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 232C
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/355061
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS
4:00PM-6:00PM · Phoenix Convention Center - Hall 4
975: Measured and Modeled Ozone Distributions over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans from ATom and Other Studies
Field deployments of the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission have provided a large data set of chemical and other measurements over the Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, and Arctic Oceans from near the surface to about 12 km in each season. ATom was designed to study ozone and methane chemistry, atmospheric oxidation, and other chemical cycles on large scales, and to challenge chemical transport models. In this poster, CIRES’ Eric Hintsa will present data from ATom deployments and intercomparisons between various model studies, focusing on the distributions of ozone and related gas phase species.
Eric Hintsa, CIRES and NOAA
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/351879
1042: Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Predictions of Regional Crime Anomalies in the United States
Recent studies have found a relationship between seasonal temperature anomalies and crime rates. While some studies produced future projections of crime rate changes attributable to climate change, none have attempted shorter-term (seasonal) predictions that leverage existing seasonal forecasting capacity and may be of more immediate application in law enforcement. In this poster, CIRES’ Ryan Harp describes a study which determined the sensitivity of crime to temperature and examined the feasibility of applying regional-level crime models to monthly temperature predictions at forecast lead times of one, three, and six months.
Ryan Harp, CIRES and CU Boulder
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353865
THURSDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
11.4: Managing for Drought, Part IV: Dynamic Uncertainties Arising from Drought Decisions
Drought is a slow disaster that generates long-term impacts on agricultural producers and communities across the West, even after a drought has ended. In efforts to recover, many make decisions to reduce future drought impacts, especially insufficient water or poor water quality. Uncertainties around these decisions, framed in this talk as unintended consequences from decisions made after a recent drought, can generate unforeseen harm in the same water system. CIRES’ Jennifer Henderson presents a study that draws on semi-structured interviews across multiple sectors and spatialities of Colorado’s Arkansas River and suggests different unexpected vulnerabilities, such as entire rural communities depleted of economic viability, and resiliency.
Jennifer Henderson, CIRES and CU Boulder
09:15 AM - 09:30 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 226C
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/355487
13C.2: Understanding and Predicting ENSO's Influence on the California Current System
The California Current System (CCS), which extends along nearly all of the U.S. West Coast, has one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. Before and during the very strong 2015-2016 El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, record high ocean temperatures also occurred in the CCS with dramatic impacts on marine life. While the link between ENSO events and sea surface temperature anomalies along the U.S. west coast have been well documented, outstanding issues remain. NOAA’s Mike Alexander will address those issues using observations and a number of different modeling approaches. Please note: Due to the shutdown, this talk may be cancelled or given by a colleague.
Michael Alexander, NOAA with CIRES co-authors
10:45 AM - 11:00 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 129B
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/351334
12B.5: Current Status of Clarus Functionality in the NWS' Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS)
The Federal Highway Administration Clarus initiative was designed to provide broader weather information support for surface transportation system operators to improve user safety, reliability and security. The NWS' Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS)has been a crucial data delivery system for NWS Weather Forecast Offices for many years. The operational needs for improved situational awareness from both a NOAA and DOT perspective made MADIS the perfect pathway for the Highway Administration’s Clarus initiative to move from research to operations. CIRES’ Leon Benjamin will highlight enhancements made to MADIS to handle Clarus functionality.
Leon Benjamin, CIRES and NOAA
11:30 AM - 11:45 AM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 130
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354806
12B.6: AQPI: Precipitation Forecasts over the San Francisco Bay Area from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model during an Atmospheric River Event on 21-23 Mar 2018
An atmospheric river event impacted California in March 2018, producing heavy rain in the northern San Francisco Bay area. CIRES’ Jason English describes quantitative precipitation forecast performance from different versions of the NOAA hourly-updating operational 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction system. Model forecasts are then compared to widely-used quantitative precipitation estimation products such as the Stage IV analysis, as well as against trusted rain gauges in the Bay Area.
Jason English, CIRES and NOAA
11:45 AM - 12:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 127ABC
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353228
THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS
Times and locations as indicated below
11.1: Recent Advances in Airborne Aerosol Measurements and Implications for Cold Cloud Formation
In this invited talk, CIRES’ Karl Froyd will discuss recent airborne aerosol measurements and what they tell us about cold cloud formation mechanisms. High altitude airborne measurements in various cirrus environments implicate mineral dust particles as predominant ice nuclei (IN). Froyd will compare new dust measurements from the NASA ATom (Atmospheric Tomography) global sampling campaign to global simulations to investigate dust sources and assess predictive ability for this important IN. He will also consider other potential IN: biomass burning particles, sea salt, bioaerosols, crystalline ammonium sulfate, and glassy organic particles.
Karl Froyd, CIRES and NOAA
01:30 PM - 02:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 223
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353580
12B.2: Towards Quantifying Smoke Emissions from Wildfires: The BB-FLUX Project
Wildfire impacts on ecosystems and the atmosphere are difficult to quantify because of uncertainties around fuel amounts and their combustion efficiency to produce emissions of trace gases and smoke. A new CU Boulder airborne Solar Occultation Flux (CU SOF) prototype instrument provides more direct quantitative assessments of wildfire smoke. CIRES Fellow Rainer Volkamer discusses the BB-FLUX project (Biomass Burning Fluxes of Trace Gases and Aerosols), which deployed CU SOF and made other measurements during the 2018 wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest, allowing researchers to quantify the amount of fuel that goes up in smoke for a subset of the wildfires.
Rainer Volkamer, CIRES and CU Boulder
01:45 PM - 02:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 126A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/354700
10B.6: Estimation of VIIRS Cloud Transparency for the Indonesian Fishing Fleet—Preliminary Results
The VIIRS boat detection algorithm detects thousands of lit fishing vessels most nights in Indonesia. Detection numbers track the lunar cycle, with peak numbers under new moon conditions. It appears that many boats are detected under cloudy conditions based on the VIIRS cloud mask. CIRES’ Kim Baugh reports on a study of cloud transparency relative to the detectability of lit fishing boats in Indonesia.
Kimberly Baugh, CIRES and NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
02:45 PM - 03:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 231C
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/355356
20.6: Assimilating Cloud Observations in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Successful data assimilation is important for initializing numerical weather prediction models, yet assimilating cloud observations can be particularly challenging. CIRES’ Terra Ladwig discusses an approach to assimilating cloud observations that improves analyses and forecasts of clouds and precipitation in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE).
Therese Ladwig, CIRES and NOAA
02:45 PM - 03:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 131AB
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/353296
13B.2: Emissions, Transport, and Chemistry of Smoke from the October 2017 Northern California Fires
During wildfires, air quality forecasts using regional chemical models provide key information for affected communities, yet many models don’t accurately predict ozone and particulate matter levels. CIRES’ Megan Bela describes a study of carbon monoxide emissions estimates from the October 2017 Northern California fires, based on airborne measurements with CU Boulder’s Solar Occultation Flux instrument. Combining these estimates with WRF-Chem simulations and satellite retrievals of fire radiative power allowed researchers to study the diurnal and spatial variability of the emissions, plume transport and chemistry. This work will inform sampling and analysis of data collected during the 2019 NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ field campaign.
Megan Bela, CIRES and NOAA
03:45 PM - 04:00 PM · Phoenix Convention Center - North 126A
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/351896