Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder

Highlights of CIRES Science at AMS 2020


Every year, several dozen CIRES scientists and colleagues present important work during the AMS Annual Meeting. This year's highlights follow, organized by day. These highlights do not necessarily reflect the importance of the science; rather, they reflect talks, posters and discussions likely to be of interest to a broad scientific audience. 

Click for daily highlights:

Monday, 13 January

View Agenda

MONDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

Development and Improvements in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS)

NOAA’s Global Systems Division is developing an ensemble data assimilation system to initialize the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) version 4 and provide improved severe thunderstorm forecasts. CIRES/NOAA’s Terra Ladwig describes two key areas of development for this system, known as HRRRDAS, and presents cases and statistics for severe weather events in Spring 2019.  HRRRDAS is in the process of being transitioned to operations with HRRRv4.

Therese T. Ladwig, CIRES and NOAA

8:30 AM - 8:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 258A · 1A.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367308​


Persistent and Reemergent Sea Surface Temperatures: A Recipe for Better Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) data are used to make statistical forecasts of extended winter precipitation and temperature for the contiguous United States. CIRES/NOAA’s Matt Switanek developed and implemented the combined, lagged sea surface temperature (CLSST) model, using recent SSTs and SSTs up to 18 months old. His colleague Michael Scheuerer reports on findings from the study, including that in parts of the Intermountain West, CLSST has better precipitation forecast skill than dynamical model ensembles.

Michael Scheuerer, CIRES and NOAA

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 151A · 1C.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366871​


Current Status of Clarus Functionality in the NWS’s Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS)

The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) allows NOAA to collect and identify high quality observations for Numerical Weather Prediction. NWS forecasters and many other users utilize MADIS data for operational decision support to protect life and property. The Federal Highway Administration Clarus initiative was designed to provide broader weather information support for surface transportation system operators. CIRES/NOAA’s Leon Benjamin will highlight enhancements to MADIS to handle Clarus functionality.

Leon Benjamin, CIRES and NOAA

9:45 AM - 10:00 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 209 · 1B.6

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369819​


Keeping up with the Data Revolution with SOS Explorer™ Mobile

NOAA has been fostering scientific literacy for nearly two decades with Science On a Sphere’s real-time and archived weather, climate, land use, ocean, and space environmental datasets. SOS Explorer™ Mobile (SOSx Mobile) is now available as a free app, displaying Earth system observations and computer model animations on tablets and smartphones. CIRES/NOAA’s Hilary Peddicord will demonstrate how to use SOSx Mobile in a facilitated or flipped classroom or an informal science workshop.

Hilary Peddicord, CIRES and NOAA

10:30 AM - 10:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 258C · 1.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/364439​


Initialized Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting without Initialization

CIRES/NOAA’s Matthew Newman presents a new “big data” approach to producing skillful seasonal climate forecasts, up to two years ahead, with a fraction of the computing power normally needed. The technique involves searching through large datasets from existing global climate models to learn what happened when the ocean, atmosphere and land conditions were similar to today. These “model-analogs” produce remarkably good forecasts and can help researchers improve new climate models and forecasts for seasonal events.

Matthew Newman, CIRES and NOAA

10:30 AM - 10:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 154 · 2B.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369858​


Changes in Extreme Integrated Water Vapor Transport on the U.S. West Coast in NA-CORDEX, and Their Relationship to Mountain and Inland Precipitation

Western U.S. rainfall is important to water resources, but is largely variable. Precipitation events are influenced by the timing, positioning, and duration of extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (e.g., atmospheric rivers) at the coast, and by the pathways this moisture-rich air takes through the region’s complex terrain. NOAA partner Mimi Hughes investigates projections of western U.S. precipitation and IVT and documents projected changes at the end of the 21st century in NA-CORDEX regional climate models for the RCP8.5 emissions pathway.

Mimi Hughes, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

10:45 AM - 11:00 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 151A · 2C.2

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366564​


MONDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

Testing and Refinement of a Three-Dimensional Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (3D-RTMA) for Severe Weather, Aviation, Operational Forecasting, and Other Nowcast Applications

Researchers in NOAA’s Global Systems Division and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are working toward replacing the current operational 2D Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) with a high resolution analysis of the current state of the entire three-dimensional atmosphere (3D RTMA). NOAA partner Steve Weygandt summarizes the work to date on the RTMA and describes plans to transfer it to operations for severe weather, aviation, operational forecasting, and other applications.  

Steve Weygandt, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 157C · 3A.2

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367443​


High-Resolution Real-Time Forecasting of Smoke and Visibility for the CONUS and Alaska: The HRRR-Smoke System

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh with Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model simulates smoke from wildland fires in real time in high resolution over the entire continental United States. NOAA partner Georg Grell describes retrospective simulations with HRRR-Smoke from July to August 2018, when thick smoke from wildfires impacted large portions of the U.S. West, and evaluates the smoke’s impact on the meteorological forecasts during this period. HRRR-Smoke is scheduled to transition to operations in 2020.  

Georg Grell, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 157C · 3A.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367213​


Keeping Calm in the Chaos: An Examination of Forecaster Sense-Making and Partner Response to TORFFs during Hurricane Florence

During 2018’s Hurricane Florence, overlapping tornado and flash flood threats (TORFF) presented a conflict for the public—since tornado warnings advise people to go low whereas flash flood warnings advise people to go high. During a TORFF in Durham, NC on September 17, a local organization’s response added to public confusion. Drawing on social media analysis, CIRES/NOAA’s Jennifer Spinney examines decision-making mismatches between the public and organizations, and highlights the unintended social consequences that arise when organizational decision processes are opaque.

Jennifer A. Spinney, CIRES and NOAA

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 151B · 3A.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/370444​


Two Years of Remote and Autonomous Measurements of Precipitation for the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Four low-power, autonomous Antarctic Precipitation Systems (APSs) made year-round, in situ precipitation measurements on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica from December 2017 to November 2019, providing “ground truth” in understanding precipitation and snow accumulation in Antarctica. CIRES/CU Boulder’s Mark Seefeldt discusses the instruments’ configuration, how they performed in the Antarctic environment, lessons learned from the deployment, and the benefits of remote, autonomous precipitation measurements in Antarctica.

Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES and CU Boulder

3:30 PM - 3:45 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 203 · 3.7

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369922​


The Weather Archive and Visualization Environment (WAVE) Project

The National Weather Service (NWS) is collaborating with NOAA’s Global Systems Division to develop the Weather Archive and Visualization Environment (WAVE), a web-based graphical interface tool. CIRES/NOAA’s Jonathan Joyce describes recent enhancements to WAVE that enable fast, accessible data access for Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) and day-to-day forecasting duties.

Jonathan Joyce, CIRES and NOAA

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 157C · 3A.8

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369120​


MONDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS

4:00 PM-6:00 PM · Boston Convention Center - Hall B

The Enigmatic Growth of Atmospheric Methane, Poster 6

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and the second largest contributor to atmospheric radiative forcing. NOAA’s Lori Bruhwiler discusses how, after stabilizing in the late 1990s and early 2000s, global atmospheric methane has resumed its rapid rise since about 2006. The cause of this trend is not currently well understood, but the increase may be a response of natural sources to a changing climate. High-quality, long-term observational records are essential for understanding the changing methane budget.

Lori Bruhwiler​, NOAA Partner

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/365157​


Better Quantification of the Recent Unexpected Emission of CFC-11, Poster 30

The Montreal Protocol phased out production of CFC-11 and CFC-12, which destroy stratospheric ozone. Nonetheless, a new emission of CFC-11 was reported recently,  estimated to be 13±5 gigagrams per year since 2012. NOAA’s Robert Portmann better quantifies the dynamical corrections to estimates of this emission and suggests that this correction was likely less than 10 percent of the emission estimate.

Robert W. Portmann​, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369702​


Evaluating the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model in the Arctic, Poster 179

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) model is a rapidly updating weather prediction model that has been run operationally over portions of the Arctic since 2012, although its performance has never been extensively analyzed at high latitudes. The University of Oklahoma’s Matthew Bray, a former NOAA Hollings Scholar, evaluates the RAPv4 from July 2017 through June 2019 against observations at three Arctic locations. He discusses the study’s findings and the need to accurately simulate Arctic phenomena so the model can provide better predictions in the region.

Matthew Bray, University of Oklahoma with CIRES co-author Gijs de Boer

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/363917​



Tuesday, 14 January

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TUESDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

Using Deep Learning to Extract Regions of Interest (ROI) in Real Time from Geostationary Satellite Data

Atmospheric science and numerical weather models have a data problem: keeping up with the quantities of satellite data in real-time applications. Deep learning is a valuable tool for quick analysis of satellite images, including identifying cyclone regions. CIRES/NOAA’s Christina Kumler highlights how computers taught themselves to identify regions of interest (ROI) quickly and the challenges in training deep learning models to detect ROI of rare or extreme weather events.

Christina Kumler, CIRES and NOAA

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 156A · 3A.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367181​


Tracking Urban Emissions of Greenhouse Gases during the East Coast Outflow (ECO) Experiment

Using aircraft measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide and ethane, a NOAA-led team found a little less than an order of magnitude more fossil-fuel-based emissions of methane coming out of urban centers than what the most recent EPA inventory reported. NOAA’s Colm Sweeney reports on the East Coast Outflow mission and the value of deploying similar instrumentation on commercial aircraft to assess emissions throughout the United States.

Colm Sweeney, NOAA Partner

9:15 AM - 9:30 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 207 · 4B.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/370235​


Modeling Impacts of Energy and Non-Energy-Related Sources on Urban Air Quality (Invited Presentation)

CIRES/NOAA’s Brian McDonald constructed both a Fuel-based Inventory of Vehicle Emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to model impacts of mobile source emissions on ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and a bottom-up inventory of volatile chemical product (VCP) emissions to assess non-energy related impacts on ozone and SOA. In this invited presentation, McDonald reports on the impacts on air quality of mobile source and VCP emissions across the continental United States.

Brian McDonald, CIRES and NOAA

9:45 AM - 10:00 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 207 · 4B.6

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/371080​


Transition of WAM-IPE to NOAA Operations: Current Capabilities and Future Potential (Invited Presentation)

To improve space weather forecasts, NOAA is transitioning a coupled whole atmosphere and ionosphere-plasmasphere-electrodynamics model (WAM-IPE) to operations in 2020. NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow Tim Fuller-Rowell will describe the new model, which is designed to capture the response to not only the more traditional solar drivers of space weather, but also to less well-known lower atmosphere drivers. He’ll also discuss how operational space weather forecasts should improve with WAM-IPE.

Tim Fuller-Rowell, NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow

11:00 AM - 11:15 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 205A · 6.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369839​


Online Deep Learning Approach for the Detection of Areas Likely for Convection Initiation

Early detection of convection initiation leading to thunderstorms can help planning and preparation. Partnering with Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, a team in NOAA’s Global Systems Division (GSD) used machine learning to identify and assign probability of convection developing in specific areas. NOAA’s Jebb Stewart provides an overview of research into the application of deep learning to improve satellite data processing, a discussion of the challenges they face, and next steps to further this research.

Jebb Q. Stewart, NOAA partner with a CIRES co-author

11:30 AM - 11:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 156A · 4.5

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/365670​


100 Years of Progress in Forecasting and NWP Applications

Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow Stan Benjamin will discuss the evolution of forecasting and numerical weather prediction.

Stan Benjamin, NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow

11:30 AM - 11:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 104A · 5.5

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368486​


TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

Advancing Forecasting and Warning Services through a Space Weather Prediction Testbed (Invited Presentation)

The National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan recognizes that transitioning models from research to operations (R2O) and identifying gaps in research (O2R) is critical to improving operational space weather forecasts and services. Clinton Wallace, Director of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, discusses the importance of a formalized R2O2R process for space weather, with a focus on the NOAA testbed structure to test new concepts and technologies. A Space Weather Prediction Testbed could improve space weather prediction and accelerate the transfer of promising new models and tools from research to operations.

Clinton Wallace​, NOAA partner

1:30 PM - 1:45 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 205A · 7.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/370931


Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) for the Year of Polar Prediction: Turning Observations from Multiple Platforms into a Single Modeler-Ready Product

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) supersite Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) will help validate numerical weather prediction models at several polar locations. A key component is the set of Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) for several well-instrumented locations in the Arctic; the first will use data from Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. CIRES/NOAA’s Leslie Hartten describes the unique vision behind this project and the difficulty in meeting the needs of the observational, modelling, and data science communities.

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES and NOAA

2:00 PM - 2:15 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 203 · 6.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366702


Assimilating 200 Years of Weather: The Twentieth-Century Reanalysis Version 3 System

CIRES/NOAA researchers recently completed a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3. 20CRv3 provides a 4-dimensional reconstruction of global weather spanning 1836-2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations into a modern forecast system with prescribed sea surface temperatures, sea ice concentrations, and radiative forcings. Laura Slivinski describes upgrades from the previous 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c and comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations that demonstrate that 20CRv3 performs well in its estimates of atmospheric variables.

Laura C. Slivinski​, CIRES and NOAA

02:15 PM - 02:30 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 259A · 6A.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366876​


Assimilation of GLM Data Together with Ground-Based Lightning Observations for Improved Storm Spin-Up in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instruments onboard the GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites provide continuous detection of in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud, and cloud-to-ground lightning at about a 10-km resolution. The GLM data complement lightning and radar reflectivity observations from ground-based detectors over oceans and complex terrain, improving numerically-modeled storm representation for these challenging areas. CIRA partner Amanda Back describes how GLM lightning detections combined with those ingested from ground-based sensors can provide optimal coverage within the High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast and analysis system.

Amanda Back​, CIRA partner with CIRES co-authors

3:15 PM - 3:30 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253B · 6.2

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366992​


TUESDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS   

4:00 PM-6:00 PM · Boston Convention Center - Hall B

One-Stop Shopping for Physics across Scales: From a Single-Column Model to Three-Dimensional Configurations for Weather and S2S, Poster 647

NOAA is currently developing a Unified Forecast System (UFS) that utilizes the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), developed by the Developmental Testbed Center to facilitate the development of physics and to accelerate the transfer of innovations from the research community to operations. CIRES/NOAA’s Linlin Pan describes the implementation of the CCPP and three applications of the future global modeling system: the SAR (FV3-Standard Alone Regional), the GFS (Global Forecast System), and the S2S (Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction). 

Linlin Pan, CIRES, NOAA, and Developmental Testbed Center

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/365554​


NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities, Poster 656

As part of the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), CIRES and NOAA scientists in NOAA’s Global Systems Division are developing advanced physics parameterizations, aerosol and chemistry packages, and applications in scales ranging from storm scale to sub-seasonal and seasonal. NOAA’s Georg Grell summarizes these global modeling efforts, including how this work is being applied to the future global model for short- and medium-range numerical weather prediction, air quality forecasting, and at sub-seasonal time scales.

Georg A. Grell​, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369344​


Nowcasting of Auroral Electron Precipitation Using an Artificial Neural Network, Poster 778

CU Boulder’s Amin Taziny and CIRES colleagues are using advanced machine learning techniques to better understand the effect of the Sun’s variability on Earth. Taziny describes a model that uses the artificial neural network (ANN) methodology to predict auroral electron energy flux in the atmosphere and compares the model with the operational model running at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center for multiple geomagnetic storm events. The ANN methodology may contribute to better short-term auroral forecasting.

Amin Taziny​, CU Boulder partner with a CIRES co-author

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368664​


HAPS (High Altitude Pseudo Satellite) UAS for Atmospheric Research—Demonstration and Outlook, Poster 906

High Altitude Pseudo Satellites (HAPS) are an up-and-coming variety of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) capable of staying aloft at high altitude for days, weeks, or even months at a time. NOAA’s Karen Rosenlof describes the NOAA UAS Program Office’s upcoming two-year pilot project with NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Division to harness this technology for Earth system observations and atmospheric research—including scientific mission concepts that are uniquely suitable for the HAPS platform.

Karen H. Rosenlof​, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366097​


Hazard Services: An Information-Centric Modernization to the National Weather Service Watch/Warning/Advisory Program and Beyond, Poster 988

Currently, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues hazardous weather products through three different software applications within the second-generation Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, for short-fuse hazards, long-duration hazards, and river hazards. CIRES/NOAA’s Darrel Kingfield describes how the Hazard Services program integrates these disconnected software tools into a common interface for issuing timely and information-centric watch, warning, and advisory products for all hazards.

Darrel M. Kingfield​, CIRES and NOAA

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368814​

Wednesday, 15 January

View Agenda

WEDNESDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

1955–2019: How NWP Has Evolved to Improve Safety and Efficiency for Aviation (Invited Presentation)

The aviation community has been a large driver for improved NWP over the last 65 years, and increasingly so over the last 20 years. Improved aviation efficiency (jet-level winds, thunderstorms, terminal ceiling/visibility) and safety (thunderstorms, turbulence, clouds) have been a spark, especially for high-resolution NWP development. NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow Stan Benjamin discusses this history and benefits for improved high-resolution prediction for severe weather, energy, and flood prediction to lead off a joint ARAM/NWP/WAF session.

Stan Benjamin​, NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow

8:30 AM - 9:00 AM  · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 257AB · J36.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368511​


Advancing Drought Early Warning Systems: Using Recent Drought to Develop New Partnerships with Public Health Communities

CIRES/NOAA’s Amanda Sheffield explores the linkages between drought impacts on human health from across several regional Drought Early Warning Systems and examines how NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System is working to better support and prepare the public health community for drought-related health hazards. She also discusses creating a community of researchers and practitioners that will make drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable while improving the capacity to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with drought impacts.

Amanda M. Sheffield​, CIRES and NOAA

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM  · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253A · J33.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/370031​


The Final Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Operational Implementation

The next and final update to the Rapid Refresh version 5 (RAPv5) and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh version 4 (HRRRv4), is scheduled for transition to operations in 2020 and will include several physics, dynamics and data assimilation upgrades. NOAA’s Curtis Alexander discusses the scope of the upgrade, including coupling to the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model with lake hydrodynamics for improved forecasts in the Great Lakes region; wildfire-driven smoke forecasts; storm-scale ensemble data assimilation; and forecast length extensions for selected forecast cycles towards 48 hours.

Curtis Alexander​, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 252A · 8A.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/370114​


The BB-FLUX Project: How Much Fuel Goes up in Smoke?

CU Boulder scientist and CIRES Fellow Rainer Volkamer discusses the “Biomass burning of trace gases and aerosol” (BB-FLUX) project, aimed at better understanding U.S. wildfire emissions, a poorly characterized source of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols that can affect air quality and climate. Volkamer will touch on new approaches that use remote-sensing and in-situ data to inform two questions: how much fuel goes up in smoke? And what are the major uncertainties with predicting these emissions?

Rainer Volkamer​, CU Boulder and CIRES Fellow

10:30 AM - 10:45 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 211 · 9.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/365994


Projections of Future Changes in U.S. Violent Crime under Global Warming

A recent CU Boulder study revealed robust correlations between seasonal climate and violent crime rates at regional scales within the continental United States, begging the question of how future climate change will influence violent crime. CIRES/CU Boulder’s Ryan Harp outlines a new study that finds the United States should expect an additional 3.2 (2.3) million violent crimes from 2020-2099 under a higher (lower) greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Ryan D. Harp, CIRES and CU Boulder

11:00 AM - 11:15 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 153B · 7.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/365797​


Improvements in the RAP/HRRR Modeling Systems for Renewable Energy Forecast Applications

NOAA's Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating forecast models that support short-range forecast interests within the contiguous United States, including renewable-energy applications. In 2020, these models will be upgraded to RAPv5 and HRRRv4. CIRES/NOAA’s Jaymes Kenyon describes model updates that will benefit solar and wind forecasting on hourly to day-ahead timescales—including the prediction of smoke transport and its impact on radiation, which will improve forecasts of solar irradiance in the presence of wildfire smoke.

Jaymes S. Kenyon, CIRES and NOAA

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 256 · 10.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367537​


WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS

Evaluating a Bottom-Up Inventory of Oil and Natural Gas Emissions with OMI and TROPOMI Satellite Retrievals

Over the past two decades, U.S. oil and natural gas extraction has grown, and along with it, emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors including methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides. CIRES/NOAA’s Colby Francoeur reports on research using satellite data and aircraft sampling methods to more accurately estimate nitrogen oxides, methane and other air pollutants from oil and gas activities.

Colby Francoeur, CIRES and NOAA

1:30 PM - 1:45 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 206B · 10A.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366407​


The GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager: Present Status and Unique Opportunities for the Future (Invited Presentation)

The Solar Ultraviolet Imagers (SUVI) on NOAA’s GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites allow the space weather forecasting and solar physics research communities to observe features of events such as solar eruptions and flares that are inaccessible to other instruments. CIRES/NOAA NCEI’s Dan Seaton presents an overview of SUVI and its data products, current and future prospects for research and new operational approaches with SUVI, and lessons learned for next-generation space weather observatories and other planned or proposed instruments.

Daniel B. Seaton, CIRES and NOAA NCEI

2:00 PM - 2:15 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 205A · 12.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/366711​


Taking Advantage of Machine Learning Methods to Better Represent Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for Smoke and Weather Forecasting Models

Accurately representing fire emissions and smoke concentrations in rapidly changing fire and weather conditions is difficult. CIRES/NOAA’s Christina Kumler discusses how machine learning approaches could improve the way the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model represents a fire’s radiative power using available Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) R irradiance data and HRRR model weather variables.

Christina Kumler, CIRES and NOAA

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 151A · 9B.4A

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368056​


Panel: The Evolving Role of the Human in Weather Prediction and Communication: Envisioning the Future Forecast Process

Panelist Holly Obermeier, CIRES and NOAA, with experts from private industry, academic and government institutions

3:00 PM - 4:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 258B · Panel Discussion 6

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Session/53504​


Using a New Evaporative Demand Reanalysis to Understand the Demand Perspective of Drought and Food Insecurity in Africa

Drought is a sustained surface moisture imbalance between its supply and demand. The demand side, a function of atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) and surface moisture availability, is not well characterized, particularly in regions with drought-vulnerable and food-insecure populations. CIRES/NOAA’s Mike Hobbins discusses the need for global Eo estimates and the Evaporative Demand Drought Index, an emerging drought index that permits early warning and ongoing monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural flash droughts, both crucial drivers of food insecurity.

Mike Hobbins, CIRES and NOAA

3:30 PM - 3:45 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253C · 11.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369668​


Updates to the Winter Storm Severity Index for 2019-20

The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is designed to help National Weather Service forecasters maintain situational awareness of significant winter weather-related impacts and enhance communication to external partners, media and the public of the expected severity and distribution of winter weather. WSSI evaluates snow amount, snow load, blowing snow, ground blizzard, and ice accumulation. CIRES/NOAA NWS’s Joshua Kastman presents updates to WSSI as it becomes an experimental NWS product across the continental United States during the 2019-2020 winter season.

Joshua Kastman, CIRES and NOAA NWS

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 257AB · J51.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368357​


WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POSTERS

4:00 PM-6:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - Hall B

A Multifaceted Evaluation of National Water Model Snow Processes in Complex Terrain, Poster 1087

Snow accumulation and melt influence water resources management at the seasonal time scale and streamflow formation at the weather time scale. However, representing and evaluating snow is challenging because of sparse observations in complex topography areas where most seasonally persistent snowpack exists in the contiguous United States, as well as model difficulty parameterizing complex land-surface snow processes. CIRES/NOAA’s Francesca Viterbo discusses how snow processes are represented by the National Water Model, with the goal of improving prediction.

Francesca Viterbo​​, CIRES and NOAA

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/371671​


Airborne Observations of Halocarbons and Other Trace Gases from Regional to Global Studies, Poster 1275

NOAA’s James Elkins discusses long-term trends of trace gases over time and results from recent airborne missions, including NSF HIPPO and NASA ATom. He also previews future missions, including NASA ER-2 on the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summertime Stratosphere mission in Salida, Kansas in 2020-2021 and a balloon test flight series in Ft. Sumner, New Mexico for the MATTADOR mission to compare AirCores for both carbon and halocarbon gases to previous balloon instruments.

James W. Elkins​​, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369769​


An Evaluation of Vertical Profiles of Wind Speed and Direction within the Turbine Rotor Layer from Remote Sensors as Compared to Hub-Height Measurements from Nacelle Mounted Sonic Anemometers, Poster 1451

Measurements from remote sensing instruments, lidars and sodars have been used increasingly in wind energy research projects to support commercial development of wind farms. Because they provide reliable, high-resolution vertical profiles of wind speed and direction over a several-kilometer area, these instruments can characterize variable winds in complex terrain. CIRES/NOAA’s Brandi McCarty reports on nearly continuous observations of the wind field over the Columbia River Basin during the 18-month period (2016-2017) of the WFIP2 campaign.

Brandi J. McCarty​, CIRES and NOAA

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369750​

Thursday, 16 January

View Agenda

THURSDAY MORNING PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

Historical Perspectives on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial)

In this joint panel session from the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, panelist Stan Benjamin, NOAA scientist and CIRES Fellow, will discuss his perspective on the history of the weather/water/climate enterprise and participate in a panel discussion.

Stan Benjamin, NOAA partner and CIRES Fellow

8:30 AM - 9:30 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 258A · Panel Discussion 1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Session/52687​


Tropospheric Ozone Is Still Increasing across the Northern Hemisphere (Invited Presentation)

Tropospheric ozone is detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. Due to its spatial and temporal variability, quantifying net tropospheric ozone changes across the Northern Hemisphere over two decades or less has been difficult. CIRES/NOAA’s Audrey Gaudel reports on the expanded IAGOS network of commercial aircraft profiles since the mid-1990s that shows a consistent increase of free tropospheric ozone above eleven polluted regions, distributed across the tropics and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Audrey Gaudel​, CIRES and NOAA

10:30 AM - 11:00 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 207 · 13B.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367792​


AQPI: RAP/HRRR Model Forecasts of Atmospheric River Events over the San Francisco Bay Area 

Atmospheric river events are responsible for nearly half of California's annual precipitation. Researchers evaluated forecasts of several heavy rain events over the past few years, comparing model forecasts to widely used quantitative precipitation estimation products including rain gauges and radar. CIRES/NOAA’s Jason English reports that all model versions predict quantitative precipitation forecasts reasonably well, with some consistent spatial biases such as overprediction of rainfall in the Sierra Nevadas and underprediction in the Bay Area.

Jason M. English​, CIRES and NOAA

10:45 AM - 11:00 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253A · 13B.2A 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367543​


Multidecadal Surface Ozone Trends at Globally Distributed Remote Locations

Tropospheric ozone is extremely difficult to monitor on the global scale due to its highly variable distribution and interannual variability, and the ongoing shift of ozone precursor emissions from high latitudes to low latitudes. CIRES/NOAA’s Owen Cooper provides an update on surface ozone trends at 27 globally distributed remote locations, useful for examining regional trends and for evaluating chemistry-climate models and focusing on continuous ozone time series back to at least 1995.

Owen Cooper, CIRES and NOAA

11:00 AM - 11:15 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 207 · 13B.2

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368179​


Characteristics, Precursors, and Predictability of Amu Darya Drought

The socioeconomic stability of the Central Asian Republics in the Amu Darya watershed is sensitive to drought, since agricultural activities employ a large fraction of the population. And the Amu Darya watershed drought is related to droughts worldwide though links to La Niña events. NOAA’s Andrew Hoell examines the characteristics, precursors and predictability of agricultural drought over the watershed in model simulations during 1920-2019, to build a predictive understanding to inform drought and famine early warning practices.

Andrew Hoell, NOAA partner with CIRES co-author

11:00 AM - 11:15 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253C · 13A.3

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/365183​


Communicating Probabilistic Hazard Information: Broadcast Meteorologists in the 2018–19 Hazardous Weather Testbed

Broadcast meteorologists serve a critical role communicating weather warnings. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a next-generation approach to National Weather Service (NWS) watches/warnings that delivers user-specific, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for improved decision making. Two broadcast meteorologists participated in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) PHI and the 2019 HWT PHI-Hazard Services (HS-PHI) projects. CIRES/NOAA’s Holly Obermeier discusses how broadcast meteorologists interpret, use, and communicate probabilistic information using both on-air and social media outlets.

Holly Obermeier, CIRES and NOAA

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 152 · 12A.4

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368267​


Characterization and Application of JPSS Products in Biomass Burning Studies

NOAA’s Gregory Frost discusses research to characterize and improve Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) trace gas and aerosol products. He'll address how aircraft observations from the NASA ATom and NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ field campaigns allow researchers to evaluate JPSS trace gas and aerosol retrievals. The ultimate goal is to use the JPSS satellite data to improve the treatment of biomass burning emission sources in NOAA's forecast models.

Gregory J. Frost, NOAA partner with CIRES co-authors

11:45 AM - 12:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253B · 12B.6

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/369965​


THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTATIONS

Times and locations as indicated below

Evaluating Hydrologic Model Forcings for Use in Reservoir Operations Planning

All California State Water Project reservoirs, regardless of size, are required to have 10-day operations plans. CIRES/NOAA’s Janice Bytheway compares the use of both the operational and experimental ensemble versions of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model as input for hydrologic models in small basins. She assesses whether higher resolution temperature and precipitation forecasts provide better inputs to the HEC-HMS hydrologic model, and evaluates the uncertainty arising from ensemble forecast use.

Janice L. Bytheway, CIRES and NOAA

1:45 PM - 2:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 253A · 14B.2

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368994​


The U.S. West Coast Network of Atmospheric River Observatories: Tools for Improving Situational Awareness in Operational Forecasting

NOAA’s Physical Sciences Division (NOAA/ESRL/PSD) operates a network of atmospheric river observatories (AROs) along the U.S. West Coast, stretching from Forks, Washington to Santa Barbara, California. These observatories measure key ingredients of atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport associated with many landfalling Pacific storms. NOAA’s Allen White describes tools developed with data collected by the AROs to help forecasters warn the public about the impacts of ARs.

Allen B. White, NOAA partner

3:30 PM - 3:45 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 258A · J71.1

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/362999​


Investigating CFC-11 Emissions and Their Changes Using Results from the Hippo and ATom Atmosphere Sampling Surveys

A NOAA-led research team recently determined that emissions of CFC-11 increased after 2012 despite a reported phase-out of production since 2010. Subsequent research indicated at least 40 to 60 percent of that increase was attributable to eastern China, although the regions responsible for the balance haven’t been identified. CIRES/NOAA’s Lei Hu discusses additional information about the emission increase from extensive air sampling during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole campaign and the Atmospheric Tomography Mission.

Lei Hu​, CIRES and NOAA

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM · Boston Convention and Exhibition Center - 206B · 15A.2

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368522​


CIRES is a partnership of NOAA and CU Boulder.