Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder

Nicola Maher

Nicola Maher will work with Jen Kay and Antonietta Capotondi to investigate what drives Pacific Decadal Variability and how this variability and its impacts are projected to change under varying levels of global warming. The far reaching impacts of Pacific Decadal Variability mean that it is highly relevant under a  changing climate to investigate these questions. Previously it was difficult to investigate the decadal variability under a changing climate due to the low sampling of decadal modes in both climate models and observations. By using a new set of large-ensembles,  where there is enough data to investigate the decadal variability and by combining new deep learning techniques  with other more traditional analyses this research project aims to further the understanding of the mechanisms that drive IPO phase transitions, and how extreme events are modulated by the IPO around the globe under different levels of global warming.

View Publications

  • Maher N; Tabarin TP; Milinski S. (Sep 2022). Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events. Earth System Dynamics , 13(3), 1289-1304. 10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022
  • Maher N; Power SB; Marotzke J. (Dec 2021). More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century. Nature Communications , 12(1). 10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
  • Ward B; Pausata FSR; Maher N. (Sep 2021). The sensitivity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation to volcanic aerosol spatial distribution in the MPI Grand Ensemble. Earth System Dynamics , 12(3), 975-996. 10.5194/esd-12-975-2021
  • Suarez-Gutierrez L; Milinski S; Maher N. (May 2021). Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation. Climate Dynamics. 10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w
  • Maher N; Milinski S; Ludwig R. (Apr 2021). Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble. Earth System Dynamics , 12(2), 401-418. 10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
  • McGregor S; Khodri M; Maher N; Ohba M; Pausata FSR; Stevenson S. (Nov 2020). The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO. , 267-287. 10.1002/9781119548164.ch12
  • Milinski S; Maher N; Olonscheck D. (Oct 2020). How large does a large ensemble need to be?. Earth System Dynamics , 11(4), 885-901. 10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
  • Maher N; Lehner F; Marotzke J. (Oct 2020). Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades (vol 15, 054014, 2020). Environmental Research Letters , 15(10). 10.1088/1748-9326/aba86a
  • Fiedler S; Crueger T; DAgostino R; Peters K; Becker T; Leutwyler D; Paccini L; Burdanowitz J; Buehler SA; Cortes AU. (Sep 2020). Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Monthly Weather Review , 148(9), 3653-3680. 10.1175/mwr-d-19-0404.1
  • Lehner F; Deser C; Maher N; Marotzke J; Fischer EM; Brunner L; Knutti R; Hawkins E. (May 2020). Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. Earth System Dynamics , 11(2), 491-508. 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
  • Maher N; Lehner F; Marotzke J. (May 2020). Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades. Environmental Research Letters , 15(5). 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02
  • Perry SJ; McGregor S; Sen Gupta A; England MH; Maher N. (Oct 2019). Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Climate Dynamics , 54(1-2), 395-412. 10.1007/s00382-019-05006-6
  • Maher N; Milinski S; Suarez-Gutierrez L; Botzet M; Dobrynin M; Kornblueh L; Kroeger J; Takano Y; Ghosh R; Hedemann C. (Aug 2019). The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems , 11(7), 2050-2069. 10.1029/2019MS001639
  • Maher N; Matei D; Milinski S; Marotzke J. (Oct 2018). ENSO Change in Climate Projections: Forced Response or Internal Variability?. Geophysical Research Letters , 45(20), 11390-11398. 10.1029/2018GL079764
  • Maher N; England MH; Sen Gupta A; Spence P. (Jul 2018). Role of Pacific trade winds in driving ocean temperatures during the recent slowdown and projections under a wind trend reversal. Climate Dynamics , 51(1-2), 321-336. 10.1007/s00382-017-3923-3
  • Maher W; Maher N; Taylor A; Krikowa F; Ubrihien R; Mikac KM. (Jul 2016). The use of the marine gastropod, Cellana tramoserica, as a biomonitor of metal contamination in near shore environments. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 188(7). 10.1007/s10661-016-5380-6
  • Donat MG; Lowry AL; Alexander LV; O'Gorman PA; Maher N. (May 2016). More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change , 6(5), 508-+. 10.1038/NCLIMATE2941
  • Meehl GA; Teng H; Maher N; England MH. (Dec 2015). Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters , 42(24), 10840-10846. 10.1002/2015GL066608
  • Maher N; McGregor S; England MH; Sen Gupta A. (Jul 2015). Effects of volcanism on tropical variability. Geophysical Research Letters , 42(14), 6024-6033. 10.1002/2015GL064751
  • England MH; Kajtar JB; Maher N. (May 2015). Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus. Nature Climate Change , 5(5), 394-396. 10.1038/nclimate2575
  • Griffin J; Latief H; Kongko W; Harig S; Horspool N; Hanung R; Rojali A; Maher N; Fuchs A; Hossen J. (Jan 2015). An evaluation of onshore digital elevation models for modeling tsunami inundation zones. Frontiers in Earth Science , 3. 10.3389/feart.2015.00032
  • Maher N; Sen Gupta A; England MH. (Aug 2014). Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries. Geophysical Research Letters , 41(16), 5978-5986. 10.1002/2014GL060527
  • Griffiths RW; Maher N; Hughes GO. (Jul 2011). Ocean stratification under oscillatory surface buoyancy forcing. Journal of Marine Research , 69(4), 523-543. 10.1357/002224011799849372