Naman Kishan Rastogi

Riverine floods pose a significant and growing risk in monsoon-dominated regions. Naman's research addresses three broad questions: what are the large-scale climatic drivers of floods, how can a flexible and integrated flood forecasting framework be developed to provide risk, inundation, and depth, and how can such a framework be translated into real-time forecasting systems? To address these questions, he develops a Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model to capture spatiotemporal dependencies in river stage and generate ensemble forecasts, alongside a distinct Bayesian Causal Network framework to identify large-scale climate drivers, which are further integrated with hydraulic modeling to produce flood inundation, depth, and probabilistic risk estimates.