Naman Rastogi

My current research focuses on developing an integrated flood forecasting system for the Brahmaputra River Basin, a monsoon-dominated, data-scarce region. I’ve built a Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) that captures spatial and temporal river stage dynamics and couples it with HEC-RAS hydraulic simulations to produce probabilistic flood inundation maps. In parallel, I use Bayesian networks and causal inference techniques (including do-calculus and Bayes Factors) to diagnose and quantify the influence of large-scale climate drivers on streamflow variability. This integrated framework enhances early warning capabilities by incorporating both predictive uncertainty and climate–hydrology teleconnections, and has been validated using gauge observations, satellite-based flood imagery, and SWOT-derived water levels.