Sea ice forecasts are a lifeline for the Alaskan fishing industry, America’s growing icebreaker fleet, and Alaskan coastal communities that rely on sea ice for subsistence activities and travel.

A new study led by CIRES and NOAA establishes a new standard for air-sea ice observations in the Arctic, representing a significant step towards improving sea ice prediction models. The research is based on observations from the recent Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in which NOAA and CIRES scientists were significantly involved.

In the new study, researchers tracked the growth and melt of Arctic sea ice over time by measuring the amount of energy it absorbed and released, calculating the sea ice’s “energy budget.” This approach was chosen because it mirrors the way advanced forecast models, like NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS), predict ice behavior. 

Achieving “closure,” where the measured energy budget matches the physical change in ice mass, is notoriously difficult and extraordinarily rare. But the new study shows observations from MOSAiC achieved remarkable closure over 10 months of seasonal changes by comparing energy budget measurements to direct observations of ice thickness made by numerous, independent collaborators.

The findings point to specific ways to improve sea ice forecasting models. The study introduces a new diagnostic tool, the “atmospheric state effect,” that will help evaluate and address long-standing model biases associated with Arctic clouds. Arctic clouds have a significant impact on the sea ice energy budget (and therefore sea ice growth), so reducing these cloud model biases will improve the models’ skill in predicting how the sea ice will evolve through a forecast. 

The study also highlights specific areas for future focused model improvement. For instance, model components responsible for calculating how the ice is influenced by atmospheric turbulence are found to be more sensitive to certain weather conditions and physical relationships than previously thought.

Ultimately, this work represents a significant step towards closing the precision measurement gap in the far north, improving the performance of models. With improved models comes more accurate sea ice prediction, strengthening the nation’s industries and communities in the Arctic. 

Matt Shupe, lead author of the study, has been awarded Stockholm University’s King Carl XVI Gustaf Professorship in Environmental Science for 2026 to 2027. The appointment is a prestigious visiting fellowship, and Shupe’s work will complement research on Arctic climate currently conducted at the university.