Work led by former CIRES Visiting Fellow Chris Little uncovered 3 distinct spatial patterns in Pacific Ocean tide gauge sea level records:

1. A spatially uniform rise, smaller than that found in other ocean basins, related to long-term changes in greenhouse gases;
2. A non-linear pattern, potentially linked to aerosols, which are tiny particles — like dust or smoke — suspended in the atmosphere; and
3. A cyclical pattern related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, a long-term (15 – 30 year) cycle in ocean surface temperatures and surface winds in the Pacific Ocean.

The team, which includes CIRES Fellows Kris Karnauskas and Steve Nerem, found that 30-year satellite-derived regional sea level trends are dominated by the non-linear aerosol pattern. The results suggest that these records might not accurately represent longer-term historical patterns or changes in the future.

Read the paper in Science Advances.